The Chicago Bears could find themselves with interesting options for a second round pass rusher
Quite possibly the biggest need on the team right now is an edge rusher. The team signed Aaron Lynch who is currently penciled in as a starter. They recently invested a first-round pick in Leonard Floyd, and while he has projected upward, injury hurt that growth last season. The Chicago Bears needs some help across from him.
In the first round, it looks as though they are going to be too late for Bradley Chubb and too high for Harold Landry, although an argument could be made. Marcus Davenport is another player likely to be gone by the Bears pick at 39. However, depending on how the board breaks, the rest of the edge rushers could be in play at pick 39. There are those three who separate themselves from the pack and then debate reigns from there. Likely one or two will be off of the board after those top three. However, one or two from a good group is also going to fall. Which edge rusher should Bears fans be hoping to fall?
Josh Sweat, Florida State
Josh Sweat may have the most upside of the potential edge rushers to fall to the 39th pick. However, there also has to be projection involved in his transition to the NFL. Sweat played all over the Florida State defensive line. A lot of his snaps were as a 3-4 defensive end playing the five-technique against guards.
Sweat was not bad in this area, in fact, he excelled in getting into the backfield, and making an impact in the running game. Sweat was able to burst off of the line scrimmage and push lineman backward to throw off running lanes and put the opposition behind the chains.
Being able to line up all over the line and excelling at redirecting running paths and making plays in the backfield is how Jadeveon Clowney could be classified in the NFL. Clowney broke out in terms of sacks in 2017, but in 2016, he finished second in the NFL in tackles for loss despite just six sacks. Clowney also lead the league in tackles for loss last season.
When looking at the two athletically, it becomes more than just a usage comparison. The arch of a strong run defender who develops an as a pass rusher could be had by Sweat.
There is projection of what he can be as a pass rusher, and he has just 14.5 sacks in his three-year career. However, as shown in his athletic profile, the upside is there. In the play below, Sweat shows how to win with his hands, and already has the base of a run defender.
Sweat is a bit smaller framed than a player such as Clowney, which is why he must transition further outside in the NFL. This is where the fit with the Bears comes into play. Floyd is better off of the ball, but Sweat is going to stay on the line, despite playing the edge.. He can line up inside, and the team can slide their line either way and move Floyd around even more off of the ball.
Related Story: Josh Sweat Draft Profile
Sweat has two knee injuries in his past, including a meniscus surgery that ended his 2016 season. Since then his motor runs hot and cold. Adding that into the projection of what he can be in the NFL can be enough to offset the upside in athletic profile and push him into the second round.
If that happens the Bears should pounce.
Lorenzo Carter, Georgia
Lorenzo Carter is another high upside bet. He also is a player that comes with projection, which is why he may end up being a decision for the Bears at 39.
Carter, coming from Georgia played a similar style of football as Leonard Floyd. Yes, he was a pass rusher. However, he played off of the ball a lot. In the Rose Bowl, against a widespread offense, he found himself off of the ball and in space.
Lorenzo Carter is an edge rusher who you can line up against tight ends.
The team also used him to spy a freelancing quarterback such as Baker Mayfield.
While Josh Sweat was strong inline and getting upfield to disrupt the run, Carter is strong at staying outside, containing the edge and keeping speedy running backs inside.
However, like Sweat, he posted low sack totals and most of what he could do in the NFL as an actual pass rusher would be based on a projection and his athletic profile.
Carter tested off of the charts. He has elite speed and burst, and that shows. Even though he was unblocked, the closing speed cannot be taught.
Carter can use his length and speed to get around the edge clean and disrupt the pocket.
His combination of length and short area quickness was enough to get away from Quenton Nelson and fight back to the ball to make a tackle.
However, he wastes a lot of his athleticism with hesitance and also struggles with his ability to finish. Carter seems to always just be a step away, or a step slow to make the play. Some of it comes to down to diagnoses, some down to technique.
Related Story: Lorenzo Carter draft Profile
On top of that, his playing strength can be questioned. Against Notre Dame, they have a tight end blocking him and are rolling their quarterback out his way without any fear. Carter has a chance to put that fear into them but cannot.
It can show inline against the run as well. The strength is there, but he is a player who wins much more with speed and burst than technique, power, and leverage.
He could move inside in the NFL but is still questionable in some of his play in space as well. As shown below, he is shifting right to left to defend the run. He overpursues and a cut back takes him out of the play. Questions in coverage show as well.
At the end of the day, he is essentially an even more raw version of Floyd. Both are much better off of the ball and containing than rushing upfield. Sweat is a better fit because of the way he complements Floyd more than replicates him. However, to add a freak athlete with the upside of Carter in the second round does bring intrigue, if he were the one to fall to the Chicago Bears.
Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
While Carter and Sweat seem to have the low 40s as a stopping point for their draft stock, you can seem to find Hubbard anywhere from the late first round through the early third.
It does make sense, Hubbard has similar sack statistics to the two. However, while Sweat has injuries and both have usage as an excuse, Hubbard does not necessarily have one. To be honest, Hubbard does not explode on tape. He did explode out of the gym, though and does deserve the fandom to hope he is there at 39.
The 3-cone is the most important time to note for an edge rusher. That is where Hubbard excels above the rest. While the burst does not quite show yet in the way of a Harold Landry, this is what pushes Hubbard into the second round conversation. Hubbard can show his burst, but in doses.
He has the closing speed to shut down the run.
Hubbard also has quick feet to stunt as a blitzer. The stunts were a friend to Hubbard, and his ability to plant his foot and explode to close holes is when his athleticism truly shows.
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Hubbard is also very aware and is able to process quickly and react. He is able to shoot into the backfield before the Penn State pulling guard had a chance. He saw a hole, he burst in the hole and ended the play before it started.
Again, he is coming off of the edge, but spots the tight end changing his direction, and latches onto him towards the sideline. Hubbard uses great recognition and change of direction to help make the play.
Hubbard is also a very technically sound player. He plays with good hand technique and is able to push pockets and affect throwing lanes. As shown below, he is pushing his man back with pure leverage.
Hubbard also has a strong quick swipe move. Watch his right arm as he is able to leverage himself off of the lineman and push right past him into the quarterback. He even forced a fumble on the play.
Same thing below.
Remember the play with Lorenzo Carter not punishing his opposition for lining him up with a tight end? Do not line a tight end up against Sam Hubbard. He will punish you.
After the athletic testing, Carter was a name being talked about but Hubbard could be an option as a high upside bet as well. Hubbard does not have great length but understands hand technique and leverage. While he may not explode off of the ball, he can possess short area bust and close lanes quickly.
At the end of the day, if any of these three are around by the Chicago Bears second pick, they should likely be the player selected. All three present upside and day one starter capabilities.