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Chicago Bears should pass on Vita Vea

By Parker Hurley

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Defensive lineman Vita Vea
GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Defensive lineman Vita Vea /
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As the days tick down until the 2018 NFL draft, speculation is starting to get real about who will be around when the Chicago Bears pick at number eight. It seems as though the pool of players the team will choose from is dwindling down. Quenton Nelson is the hope, but many do not see him falling. From there, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Denzel Ward, Tremaine Edmunds, and Roquan Smith seem to dominate the buzz. Harold Landry, Marcus Davenport, and Vita Vea have been acknowledged as sleepers as well as trading down.

Vea is an interesting case who has picked up buzz after visiting the Chicago Bears recently

Vita Vea is a talented player, there is no doubt about it. When a player comes into the NFL draft with athletic traits that match up with Dontari Poe, Haloti Ngata, B.J. Raji and Linval Joseph, there is going to be talent worth betting on.

The question for the Chicago Bears will be whether or not he is the best fit and the best player at this point in time?

Scheme Fit

The Chicago Bears play a three-man front on their defensive line as their base. They lost Mitch Unrein along the line so technically there is a need beside Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman. A three-man front of Goldman, Hicks, and Vea sounds great on paper.

However, there is a question about whether or not Vea is a good fit next to Goldman. Goldman is a pure nose tackle. There is no way around it. Vea profiles as a nose tackle in terms of size. However, he does have the power and explosion to defend the run from the 5-technique. Below, he takes on Tyrell Crosby, a second-round pick at tackle in many regards. He is able to beat Crosby into his gap and use his power to seal the hole and make the play in the running game.

The question will be his pass rush. Vea did not pass rush from a 5-technique often. As shown in his athletic profile, he does not have the length to deal with tackles when the tackle is stepping back and letting his opponent come to him. He cannot use his force to leverage his strength and would get eaten up away from the interior.

It also takes away from what Vea does best as a pass rusher. Lined up in the 0 or 1 technique, Vea is a force who is able to present pressure straight up the gut. The 40-yard dash is not a great measure for defensive lineman, but Vea posted a great 10-yard split, which does correlate to that explosive burst in the middle. Vita Vea pushes pockets and makes quarterbacks uncomfortable and unable to step up.

However, that is the same strength in which Eddie Goldman presents as a pass rusher. Vita Vea only had 3.5 sacks last season. Goldman only had one. Both are good at pushing centers but not at finishing the job. The two would not work well together when it comes to stopping the pass.

Sub package League

Then you remember, most offenses are running out 11-personnel nowadays, and defenses have responded by making sub-package football their base sets. Last season the Bears ran their base 3-4 defense less than 35% of the time. The Bears will almost always take that third defensive lineman off of the field for a third defensive back.

That is why last season Akiem Hicks and Goldman were the only two defensive linemen to play over half of the teams defensive snaps. In fact, those two alone played 57% of the team’s entire defensive line snaps in 2017. Yes, the team lost Mitch Unrein.

However, he played just 15% of the team’s defensive line snaps and 389 overall snaps. Jonathan Bullard played 16% of the defensive line snaps and progressed as the season went. Roy Robertson-Harrison played 8% of the defensive line snaps. Bullard is an upfield penetrator inside and can play the 1-5 technique. Robertson-Harris is longer and quicker and can play the 3-7 technique. With both still under the age of 25 and due for a slight snap increase, you would assume the mix and match power of their versatility would make up for the majority of those 389 missing snaps.

Is Vita Vea an upgrade over the combination of Bullard and Robertson-Harris adding 389 snaps to their workload? Likely, yes.

Does that feel like the big need on the defense when the team has not quite addressed the fact that Sam Acho and Christian Jones combined for 1,316 snaps in 2017? Not even the slightest.

Could the team play a heavier front, and go with a three-man front in nickel situations? It is possible. By design, that means taking an Aaron Lynch or Sam Acho off of the field for the defensive back rather than Vea. Hicks would likely have to slide a bit more outside but Vea and Goldman could try to be a heavier version of Aaron Donald and Ndamakung Suh on the inside.

Still, the lack of speed around the edges would force this to be a minimal thing. And if you are going to go through that many hoops to jump up and grab Vita Vea slightly ahead of schedule, why not just draft Harold Landry?

Landry is a better fit for the pass-happy nickel league, and the upgrade in 639 snaps that Acho had to play compared to the 389 that Unrein played makes his addition much more valuable to the team. Everyone is complaining about a down year for Landry in 2017. His five sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss trumps Vea both in sacks, 3.5 and tackles for loss, 5.5.

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Statistical questions

We never hear anyone really discuss the statical questions of Vita Vea. Everyone just points to his 40 time and guarantees that he will be an impact player. There is also his usage. As shown above, he spent most of his early down snaps stuffing the run from a 3 or 5-technique and slid into pocket pushing mode on pass rushing downs.

Still, in college, no matter the scheme, statistical success is more predictive than you may imagine on the defensive line. While sacks are not quite as indicative due to scheme, dominant defensive tackle talents get tackles for loss. Vea did not do this. With this, Vea brings real questions as to his first round value, let alone his top ten pick status.

In the article in which Mosher is promoting with his table, he looks at the meshing of combine testing and college statistics to sort out the defensive tackle group.

There is a list that features every interior defensive lineman who averaged at least 1.15 tackles for a loss per game and ran under a 7.60 3-cone drill which includes

Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy, Sheldon Day, Fletcher Cox, Kawaan Short, DeForest Buckner, Chris Wormley, Datone Jones, Suh, J.J. Watt, Derek Wolfe, Nick Farley and Aaron Donald. Only Harrison Phillips qualified amongst that list this season.

Unfortunately, when looking at players with a positive athletic score and a less than average statistical score, it does not paint the same pretty picture. Players with a 10-yard split faster than 1.82, so a quick get off, combined with less than 0.5 tackles for loss per game amounts to a list including

Vita Vea, Arik Armstead, Jarran Reed, Marvin Austin, Sione Fua, Eddie Vanderdoes, Terrell McClain, Dalvin Tomlinson, Cam Thomas, former Bear Ego Ferguson, and current Chicago Bear John Jenkins. Some of these players have the chance or have turned into solid role players in the NFL. However, since 2010, nobody has lived up to a top ten pick with his low level of production. Even Eddie Goldman had eight tackles for loss and four sacks in his last season.

The fact of the matter is that while Vea is quicker off of the snap than Eddie Goldman, and he can play the 5-technique on early downs to stop the run, that is not enough to take him in the first round, let alone the top eight.

The playing time isn’t there, the pass rush versatility when playing with Goldman makes him a less than ideal fit, and there are bigger needs with better and more productive college players available at this time.

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