Fair or Foul: Mitchell Trubisky TD to INT rate

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 03: Mitchell Trubisky
CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 03: Mitchell Trubisky /
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What would a realistic TD to INT rate look like for Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky?

Mike Clay of ESPN.com is one of the more accurate in the business when it comes to statistical projection. He does the stat projections for ESPN.com’s fantasy content.

Of course, projections are fluid and do adjust on that week to week basis. Still, it was interesting to note his original projection having Mitchell Trubisky throwing for 3,951 yards. Could he really throw for nearly 4,000 yards? With that Trubisky had 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Coming off of a season in which Trubisky had as many touchdowns as interceptions that should be a nice step forward for Trubisky. It had me wondering where that touchdown to interception rate would stack up against other second-year quarterbacks.

Since 2007, here is where Trubisky would rank in terms of second year quarterbacks touchdown to interception rate with at least 10 starts that season.

Nick Foles– 13.50

Carson Wentz– 4.71

Josh Freeman– 4.17

Jared Goff– 4.00

Marcus Mariota– 2.89

Russell Wilson– 2.89

Andrew Luck– 2.56

Derek Carr– 2.46

Tim Tebow– 2.00

Blake Bortles– 1.94

JaMarcus Russell– 1.86

Trevor Siemian– 1.80

Mitchell Trubisky- 1.77****

Joe Flacco– 1.75

Andy Dalton– 1.69

Dak Prescott– 1.69

Cam Newton– 1.58

Matt Ryan– 1.57

Jameis Winston– 1.56

Teddy Bridgewater– 1.56

Christian Ponder– 1.50

Tyler Thigpen– 1.50

Ryan Tannehill– 1.41

Robert Griffen III- 1.33

Mark Sanchez– 1.31

Colt McCoy– 1.27

Trent Edwards– 1.10

Geno Smith– 1.00

Jake Locker– 0.91

Chad Henne– 0.86

There is really no correlation here to NFL success. Remember the Nick Foles break out season? What an outlier. Josh Freeman also had a stellar year two while Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston threw a plethora of interceptions.

At the end of the day, Trubisky seems to fall close to the middle in this rate. The question comes down to whether or not he fits in at this rate.

Goff and Wentz

Notice Carson Wentz and Jared Goff near the top of the list. The new CBA, and rookie quarterback contracts have incentivized teams to build around their young quarterback on a rookie level deal. Wentz and Goff are perfect examples and beneficiaries of this new revelation.

The Bears offseason has often been compared to the Los Angelas Rams often. The team hired a young offensive head coach and put a new group of playmakers around him.

While many saw Wentz as the MVP last season, the fact of the matter is that the Eagles spent their second offseason with Wentz stockpiling the team as well. Corey Clement, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith on offense. Chris Long, Derek Barnett, Ronald Darby, Patrick Robinson and Timmy Jernigan on defense. Wentz picked up a lot of help between year one and two.

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The Chicago Bears are following this same recipe as the Eagles and Rams. So, the touchdowns feel reasonable. If Robinson can be healthy he certainly has double-digit upside. Anthony Miller was better than expected when it came to turning receptions into touchdowns, and Adam Shaheen was brought in to be a touchdown threat.

However, where Trubisky might jump into Goff and Wentz territory is the interception rate. Clay’s projections are fair, especially considering the statical context his formula has to apply from year one.

However, in looking at the interceptions of Trubisky, his ability to protect the football is impressive.

He did not throw a deep interception. He also was conservative with the football in the red zone, and overall was a smart decision maker. The majority of his interceptions last season were mechanical and Dan Durkin of the Athletic has a great breakdown on how to identify to help fix the issue. You can follow him on twitter here as his site is behind a paywall.

Trubisky comes in with great decision making. With time to work on his mechanics, a better offense overall with simpler passing and better weapons to help keep the passes simple and the touchdowns up, Trubisky should have a chance to have an even better TD to INT rate in 2018.