Fair or Foul: 1,000 yards for Jordan Howard in 2018
Will Jordan Howard break 1,000 yards for a third straight season and how much can he eclipse it by?
Plenty of people seem to be off of the Jordan Howard bandwagon due to his inability to catch passes. It has sparked rumors and has beat writers saying that he may be in for a reduced role.
Mike Clay who does the projections at ESPN.com has his scheduled for a career low in carries. With that is a career low in yards. Clay projected Howard for 1,025 yards. Is that a fair projection, too high, or too low?
Carries
It is worth noting that while some people are zigging off of Howard, I seem to be zagging into thinking Howard can have a strong year. The coaching staff has identified his weakness and is working on it, rather than working around it. On top of that Matt Nagy relied heavily on the running game in his short stint in Kansas City.
Howard could became at the very least usable in the passing game and with that could see similar carries to past years.
Shot Gun
Nagy ran a lot out of the shotgun formation. Jordan Howard just so happened to see a major spark in production from the shotgun formation. Howard averaged 6.4 yards per carry from shotgun last year.
That is an unreal rate and has to do with the small number of chances he had from that formation, and the surprise of doing something unpredictable in the Dowell Loggains offense.
Still, it is fair to mention that Howard has excelled in an area that Matt Nagy loves to run from.
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Yards Per Carry
Clay has Howard projected for 4.2 yards per carry. For his career, Howard averages 4.6 yards per carry but that is inflated by his unreal rookie season with 5.2 yards per carry.
Still, his 2018 projection is an increase from 4.1 yards per carry in 2017. The question now becomes whether that is a big enough increase. The Nagy offense as a whole could help provide that upgrade, but the upgrade in offensive line could make him even more efficient.
James Daniels was one of the best run blockers in the draft, immediately brings athleticism that can translate to runs breaking into the second level and beyond. On top of that the team upgraded in offensive line coach. It can be argued that the increase in yards per rush could exceed 4.2 if the line clicks.
Fair or Foul
We see Howard getting 240 as close to the lower end of the spectrum. Add in that the spread out offense and threat to pass may see some improved running lanes, thanand Howard can take advantage of that with plus vision, and this could be a good fit.
As mentioned, many are going to zig off Jordan Howard. I am going to zag onto him. If he can get healthy, and Trubisky can draw respect in the passing game, Howard should finish the year closer to 1,100 yards than 1,000.