Fair or Foul: 73 receptions for Allen Robinson

JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 24: Allen Robinson Chicago Bears
JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 24: Allen Robinson Chicago Bears /

Would 73 receptions for Allen Robinson be a fair projection for his 2018 season?

Allen Robinson appears to be ready to go for the start of the 2018 NFL regular season. Heck, he appears to be ready to go for training camp on day one. That is great news considering he tore his ACL very early into his 2017 regular season.

With health being a decent factor, it could be tough to project what Allen Robinson is going to do statistically this season. However, given the recent news, it feels fair to go into the season without any hesitation about his workload.

Mike Clay, who does the fantasy football projections at ESPN.com gave Allen Robinson a healthy workload for his first year in Chicago. He has Robinson being targeted 137 times and hauling in 73 passes.

This would put him in somewhat rarified air amongst major Chicago receiving seasons. Below is the list of Bears receivers who were targeted at least 137 times or more. Only seven different receivers have been that involved in the offense.

When you look at the list of players with at least 73 receptions, it is the same list with Johnny Morris added. Morris played in 1964 when targets were not a stat at the time, but he surely would have been on the list as well.

One thing that is interesting to take away is that while he would obviously have the least amount of targets of the group, the list starts at his minimum, he still would finish with 9 fewer receptions than any other receiver on the list.

In fact, with these projections, Trubisky would be just a 54% completion passer on attempts to Allen Robinson. That would be the worst of this group as well.

The way in which the NFL is trending, completion percentage is rising. Young quarterbacks are in better situations and are throwing the ball shorter distances. It makes sense that their efficiency stats have trended this way.

Allen Robinson played three seasons with Blake Bortles. While in their last season he only hauled in 48% of the Bortles targets, the other two seasons saw completion rates above what is projected between Trubisky and Robinson. This just seems hard to believe.

So while the 137 targets may be fair based on the way the offense is being split up, the reception total should be higher. Robinson is looked at as a big, deep ball receiver. It shows statistically when he put up 1,400 yards on 80 receptions.

Next: Fair or Foul: 500 receiving yards for Tarik Cohen

However, the root of his game is as a possession receiver. Robinson is an excellent route runner. The Chicago Bears should be looking to pepper him with targets in the quick passing game to open up the speed of Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel.

The 80 receptions of his career high feel like a more reasonable starting point considering the targets do seem a touch high. However, it is very possible that Allen Robinson shatters this projection and gets closer to 90 receptions with high volume, high-efficiency targets.