What can Fantasy Football owners expect from Allen Robinson this season?
Without question, the biggest offseason story for the Chicago Bears was the signing of Allen Robinson. Ryan Pace fell in love with Mitch Trubisky in his final season at North Carolina and traded up to the number two pick to ensure that he would be the Bears’ QB of the future. After his rookie season, it was clear that Pace needed to go out and get him some weapons and that’s exactly what he did.
Robinson led the way out of those moves. The Bears signed him to a three-year, $42 million contract with $25 million guaranteed. There is some risk in that signing as Robinson is coming off an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of 2017, but if he’s healthy, that signing could be an absolute steal.
This article will assume that Robinson is healthy and shows no lasting side effects from the injury. Several players have come back from this injury with no issue, so Robinson, who is still young, should be able to fully recover from this as well.
The last two years, the offense has revolved around Jordan Howard, but this year the offense should shift to revolving around Trubisky. Once that shift completes, Robinson will become 1b in terms of offensive focal point. Robinson will lead the Bears in targets, and as a result of that, receptions as well.
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It’s a safe bet that Robinson will be targeted at least 120 times. When healthy, Robinson’s catch rate has been around 55%. That should probably go up. Even with Trubisky as young as he is, he’s a more talented passer than Blake Bortles. If that percentage doesn’t change, Robinson should be looking around 70 catches. If it improves, that number could jump to 80. You have also seen that Robinson, consistently throughout his career averages 14.1 yards per reception.
Last year, the Eagles main target was Alshon Jeffery who averaged 13.8 yards per catch and in Kansas City it was Travis Kelce who averaged 12.5. Those offenses are brought up as comps because they should be as similar to the Bears offense as any team in the league. You should see a slight drop in Robinson’s career average, but nothing significant.
Robinson probably shouldn’t be relied on as your WR1 due to some uncertainty around Trubisky and a new offense, but he should be counted on as a high-end WR2.
Allen Robinson stat projections: 75 catches, 1035 yards, 13.8 Avg, 8 TDs