After his rookie season, what is a comparable career arch for Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery?
The 2019 season of David Montgomery was not as successful as many Chicago Bears fans would have liked. He was not a major upgrade from Jordan Howard the year before, and the biggest question came in his lack of passing game usage.
Nonetheless, fans know not to look into one year, and that with a better offensive line, things can change fast. However, after getting a sample of what type of skill set Montgomery brings to the table, it is interesting to look back at recent rookie seasons and see what type of career arch Montgomery could be in store for.
When looking historically, there have not been many rookie running backs in recent years to see the workload that Montgomery had, as well as the lack of raw yards. Below is a list of all of the rookie runners who had over 220 carries in their rookie season but failed to break 1,000 yards.
You can point to the offensive line doing Montgomery no favors, but it is rare to see that type of lacking production. Of course, one of those names is a major bust, while the other turned into a major hit. It seems as though the path could go either way for Montgomery at this point.
When looking into his body type, and playing style, we can find a few other players to look into for his potential career path.
Montgomery also came to into the NFL with questions about his big-play explosion. He weighed over 220 pounds at the combine and ran a 4.63 40-yard dash. That is a big back with limited top-end speed.
When looking at recent top 100 picks who weighed that much and ran that slow, below is a list of names since 2000.
Stevan Ridley
Daniel Thomas
Travis Henry
Carlos Hyde
Ladell Betts
Le’Veon Bell
TJ Yeldon
William Green
Cedric Benson
James Conner
Conner and Hyde are interesting case points as players who have found success in the NFL. However, Conner waited until year two to see heavy work, and Hyde had to bounce around the NFL before having his best year with the Texans in 2019.
Below is a comparison of five of these backs rookie years based on carries.
Yeldon and Thomas failed to reach 200 carries as rookies and never hit that peak moving forward. Thomas’ career last four years, while Yeldon spent four years with the Jaguars before being a special teamer in Buffalo last season.
Henry is not a bad comparison. Henry had 29 fewer rushes as a rookie for 160 fewer yards. He also was not used often in the passing game. The following two seasons Henry put up 1,438 and 1,356 yards respectively. Unfortunately, he only spent one more year in Buffalo before getting hurt and signing elsewhere. He never hit those peaks again, though.
Lastly, we have another hit or bust scenario with William Green and Le’Veon Bell. Similar to the Trent Richardson comparison, William Green was a first-round pick by the Browns. Green had one good rookie year but did not make it four years in the NFL before flaming out. Of course, we know where Bell is.
The big difference between Bell and Montgomery is receiving production. Bell had 20 more catches for 104 more yards than Montgomery as a pass-catcher.
Still, it is interesting to note that no matter how you look at Montgomery as a rookie, his closest comparison is Bell. They both came into the NFL as bigger and slower backs and both immediately saw a heavy workload, even if it was not the most productive season.
Bell bounced back in year two, losing weight, gaining a step and becoming the player we knew. Can Montgomery make that second-year leap? If not, he will be inching closer to the draft picks such as William Green and Trent Richardson. Productive players in college who could not cut it in the NFL.