Handicapping Chicago Bears Quarterback Addition

Chicago Bearas (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
Chicago Bearas (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /

If you had to bet on who the Chicago Bears would add at quarterback this offseason, where would you put your money?

Every blog is going to copy the odds for who the Chicago Bears will sign at quarterback in free agency from some sportsbook who e-mailed it to a bunch of media outlets. The reality is that sportsbooks put extremely low limits, and most do not take bets on things such as this due to leaks and potential liability.

They create thee odds to promote the name of their sportsbook, and it works, because so many sites will rely on these odds. They are not putting that much time into these, but when people see them, they react as if they know. So, to be a bit different, why not handicap the thing myself.  Here is a list of all of the free-agent quarterbacks, and the odds that the Bears will sign them. We will do trades as well. If you do not agree, why not put your money where your mouth is??

Betting Odds: +4000, Implied Odds: 0-5% chance

Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Eli Manning, Joe Webb, Josh McCown, A.J. McCarron 

These are the long shots. Brees and Prescott are not getting away from their respective teams, and while I know some fell for the rumor, Eli Manning held a retirement press conference. He also said he did not want to compete for a starting spot, which is exactly what would happen here. Josh McCown will either retire or return to Philadelphia, where he filled in admirably. McCarron and Webb are players who are fringe NFL players and would not be options.

Betting Odds: +1200, Implied Odds: 5-10%

Chase Daniel, Mike Glennon, David Fales, Sean Mannion, Blake Bortles, Geno Smith

The reunion tour tier. Maybe Daniel is more likely to come back than this, but the Bears know they need a complete overhaul of the room around Trubisky. It is tough to see him back. The same can be said for Glennon, and Fales, although the familiarity at least makes them reasonable names to bring up. Mannion and Smith have at least seen NFL snaps at quarterback in the last couple of years, but both would only be third-string options, and that seems unlikely as well.

Lastly is Blake Bortles, which is better than a zero percent chance, but adding the player, so many in the media are comparing Mitch Trubisky to would not be a great way to put out the fire around the position.

Betting Odds: +600, Implied Odds: 15%

Jeff Driskel, Brett Hundley, Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, Nate Sudfield

Driskel and Hundley are wildcards due to their athleticism. They likely would have to be a third quarterback with a draft or veteran option, but if they strike out on a bigger name, these are better fallbacks than Bortles or Geno Smith.

McCoy is a backup who could compete with Trubisky but is unlikely to sign here because he brings such questionable medicals. Matt Moore is a player who is similar to Chase Daniel, in that he knows his role as a backup. There is a chance they want his brain in the quarterback room, but this would be a fallback option and a safety blanket for Trubisky. There is talk that Sudfield could be an under the radar player that teams are excited about, but in Chicago, he would have to be a third-string option behind Trubisky and another competing quarterback. He likely could find backup work.

Betting Odds: +400, Implied Odds: 20%

Tom Brady, Phil Rivers, Ryan Tannehill 

The veteran tier. If Tom Brady leaves New England, you could argue the Bears are one of the four or five best teams that the could sign for. With that said, this is the highest his odds could be at signing with the Bears. Rivers is a bit more likely because he is leaving the Chargers. Still, all reports are that he is narrowed in on the Colts or Bucs. Still, while those two split the upper 50% chance of signing Rivers, the Bears have a 1 out of five chance at swaying him at this point. Tannehill leaving Tennessee seems to be contingent on the Titans adding Tom Brady. There is a lower than 50% chance that happens, but if Tannehill becomes a free agent,

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he could undoubtedly see Chicago as another place to win a job and boost his reputation.

Bettings Odds: +300, Implied Odds: 25%

Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater

This tier is the two players who make a ton of sense in Chicago but do not fit financially. There is a 25% chance that Winston tests the market, realizes that no team wants to take any chance on him, and then turns to Chicago to sign a cheap one-year deal with the hopes that a good defense could repair his image.

The same could be said for Bridgewater. He could see the idea that if he is a game manager, that Chicago has a defense that could lead him to the playoffs. A cheaper than market one-year deal as a starter could lead to a huge payday. That is what could drive these two to Chicago.

Betting Odds: +180, Implied Odds; 35%

Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum 

As an objective person looking to set odds based on who is the most likely to sign, these are the two most likely options at quarterback. Marcus Mariota could feel confident in his ability to beat out Mitch Trubisky, and we know he will not get a deal that Bridgewater and Winston are hoping for. The Bears would like that Mariota would understand that he is the backup, but also will push Trubisky.

The same can be said for Keenum. He knows what his market, Keenum has been a free agent the past three seasons. He bounces around on one-year deals to places where he knows he a shot to start, and none make more sense than Chicago. He has proven to have no issue as being a backup, but stepping in when called upon halfway through a season.

Trade candidates

Andy Dalton +180

Nick Foles +250

Jacoby Brissett +300

Derek Carr +400

Cam Newton +1200

Andy Dalton is the favorite for a variety of reasons, including that he is the only one on this list guaranteed to be traded this offseason. His contract is easy to restructure, and the price should not be outrageous. He would like his chances in Chicago as well.

Nick Foles has a lot of familiarity with every big name on the offensive coaching staff. The Jags also may be desperate to move him and lower his trade cost to the point where it becomes too good to pass up.

Jacoby Brissett would take Tom Brady and Phil Rivers going to the Colts. Then, the Colts would draft a quarterback to groom behind them. If that happened, Brissett would be available, and the Bears would like his contract. That is a lot of moving pieces, though.

The same would have to happen for Derek Carr to be available. However, the Colts are more likely to land someone like Rivers, and Brissett has a contract that is more movable than Carr.

Next. Mock draft 1.0. dark

The Panthers committed to Cam Newton at the combine. While some do not buy it, Newton is not cleared to play, has a contract to resolve, and would require serious trade assets. It seems unlikely at this point.

Who are you putting your money on?