Chicago Bears Roquan Smith advanced stats review

How did Roquan Smith grow from his rookie season with the Chicago Bears to his second?

As we have gone through the Chicago Bears star players, and some of their advanced stats we have had a much stronger understanding of what each player brings to the table. We have looked at everyone from David Montgomery to Charles Leno, and even Kyle Fuller and so many more. All have given us insight, and in the case of Fuller, we saw a decline in play from 2018 to 2019.

Going from year one to year two, the perception around Roquan Smith was that he had a sophomore slump. Do the advanced stats bear that out?

Pass Rush

Going from 2018 to 2019, the percent of plays where Roquan Smith was used as a rusher went up from 8.7% to 11.4%, according to Pro Football Focus. However, his total number of pressures dropped from 11 to 4, and his pass rush success rate went from 15 to 10.8.

This can be attributed to a step back in play, but also in coordinator from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano. We knew that Pagano was going to blitz more, and that is shown in Smiths’ stats. However, we also knew that when Fangio did blitz, it was creative and well-timed. Smith feasted on free releases drawn up by Fangio. Pagano will have to be more creative in his blitzes.

Tackle Efficiency

One area where Roquan Smith got better was his tackle efficiency. He went from eight missed tackles as a rookie to six in a year. That showed in his 11.3  tackle efficiency rating going up to 17.2.

The area where this showed the most was against the run. His run tackle efficiency went up from 11.2 to 29.5. His tackle efficiency in coverage was about the same, but Smith did show strides defending the run.

Run Stops

Some fans think that Smith was a bit worse against the run. However, while he only had 36 runs stops in 2019, compared to 42, his run stop rate went from 9.3 to 9.2 There were some mental issues between the tackles where runs leaked, but for the most part, Smith was strong against the run.

Coverage

Overall, Smith allowed one touchdown in 2018 and none in 2019, while picking off a mss in both years. However, he did have three pass breakups in 2018 compared to just one in 2019.

Below you can see a chart of his yards per snap allowed, snaps per target, and snaps per receptions, along with yards after the catch per reception. Overall, the stats are very close to the same.

Smith allowed a bit more after the catch in 2019 than 2018, but it was not a big drop off.

Overall

Lastly, Smith had two penalties in both seasons. When you look at Smith, the issue is almost less that he regressed, and more that he was very similar to the rookie season. There are still the same highs as a rookie, and he was efficient in most areas. However, there are equal concerns or common mistakes that need to be fixed to show progress.

One thing that Smith has in his favor is that he is just 22 years old. He was drafted younger than most of his peers. Beyond that, he missed his first training camp holding out and had a personal issue in his second season that caused him to miss time.

Still, after two years it is fair to say that the Chicago Bears should have the same amount of confidence that they had after his rookie season. However, in year three, the Bears do need to expect a step forward, rather than another plateau season.