The Chicago Bears signed Andy Dalton to a deal that rightfully angered Chicago Bears fans. Word is getting out that Dalton is expected to be the starter for week one, which brings even more questions about whether Ryan Pace can be trusted anymore.
It is fair to say that Pace had to make a move to upgrade from the mistake he made in drafting Mitch Trubisky. The question is whether or not the Chicago Bears actually upgraded from Trubisky with Andy Dalton.
Take a look at their stats below. Since Trubisky did not take over as a week one starter until 2018, and Matt Nagy was the head coach the entire time that is a good starting point. Beyond that, we are not worried about who Andy Dalton was as a rookie now that he is 33 years old. What has Dalton been in his 30s. Check out their stats since 2018 below.
| Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | AV | G | QBrec | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Rate | Int | Sk | Y/A | AY/A | NY/A | ANY/A | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A |
| 1 | Andy Dalton | 20 | 35 | 11-22-0 | 756 | 1226 | 61.7 | 8230 | 51 | 84.1 | 33 | 82 | 6.7 | 6.33 | 5.84 | 5.49 | 76 | 286 | 4 | 3.8 |
| 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 28 | 39 | 25-13-0 | 814 | 1247 | 65.3 | 8416 | 57 | 89.8 | 30 | 80 | 6.7 | 6.58 | 5.96 | 5.81 | 149 | 809 | 6 | 5.4 |
It is almost scary how close they are with Mitch getting slight nods in most categories. The huge difference comes from rushing, though. Trubisky had about twice as many rushing attempts and cooked up about 3x as many yards. He averaged 5.4 yards per attempt to 3.8 of Dalton.
Below you can see how they compare in advanced metrics, per RBSDM.com EPA has expected points added, and CPOE is completion percent over expectation. This shows how much value the QB added to each play and how accurate they are as a passer.
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Unfortunately, we once again see that in recent years, Dalton is not better than Mitch Trubisky. The big difference comes back to rushing. This is interesting to note because Trubisky has dialed back running since getting banged up in 2018. Still, he’s much more proficient in that area than Dalton, who would compare as a slight upgrade to Foles, but a downgrade from Trubisky on the athleticism meter.
There are factors at play for Dalton. His offensive line and A.J. Green got injured during his last runs with the Bengals, and his run with Dallas came after no offseason and with both tackles out. Still, it is not like Trubisky had the greatest offensive set of skill players and line.
The reality was that the Chicago Bears had to move on from Mitch Trubisky. However, they had to upgrade from him with whatever route they chose. Right now, it is hard to say whether they actually got a better quarterback room today than they had at this time last year. That is disappointing considering they made a move to upgrade already.