The news that Teven Jenkins is having back surgery is devastating for the Chicago Bears. The team anticipated him to be their starter at left tackle and had to sign 39-year old Jason Peters to replace him. However, this injury goes far beyond the 2021 season, which may be a wash for Jenkins.
This is a serious procedure and it may mean we do not see Jenkins on the field in 2022. Even then, there are legitimate questions about his long-term health and his ability to get back into the swing of things after so much time off.
Matt Nagy said that this type of surgery and its timing are what make him optimistic about the future. However, this is the same Nagy that a few days ago was saying that Jenkins would be back any day now. He is naturally optimistic about his player’s health when facing the media.
The sad reality is that the back is an issue that does not just go away, and not many rookies can miss their entire first season and then hit the ground running by the next year. All of a sudden the deck is stacking against Jenkins
Historical Comparisons of rookies missing their first season
Below is a list of every offensive lineman drafted in the first two rounds to suit up in five or fewer games in their rookie season. Five games would be an optimistic best case for Jenkins. Keep in mind, these are not starts, but rather rookies who were inactive for more than 10 games after being drafted in the top 64 picks.
| Game | Game | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | Draft ▲ | Tm | AV | G | GS |
| 1 | Luke Joeckel | 2013 | 22 | 1-2 | JAX | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 2 | Chris Lindstrom | 2019 | 22 | 1-14 | ATL | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | Shawn Andrews | 2004 | 22 | 1-16 | PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | George Foster | 2003 | 23 | 1-20 | DEN | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | Cedric Ogbuehi | 2015 | 23 | 1-21 | CIN | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | David DeCastro | 2012 | 22 | 1-24 | PIT | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Isaiah Wilson | 2020 | 21 | 1-29 | TEN | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 | Gabe Carimi | 2011 | 23 | 1-29 | CHI | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 | Derek Sherrod | 2011 | 22 | 1-32 | GNB | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | Greg Little | 2019 | 22 | 2-37 | CAR | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Forrest Lamp | 2018 | 24 | 2-38 | LAC | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Menelik Watson | 2013 | 25 | 2-42 | OAK | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Cyrus Kouandjio | 2014 | 21 | 2-44 | BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Adrian Klemm | 2000 | 23 | 2-46 | NWE | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Ben Ijalana | 2011 | 22 | 2-49 | IND | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Jacob Rogers | 2004 | 23 | 2-52 | DAL | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Ty Sambrailo | 2015 | 23 | 2-59 | DEN | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Bobbie Williams | 2001 | 25 | 2-61 | PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | Vlad Ducasse | 2010 | 23 | 2-61 | NYJ | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Charles Brown | 2010 | 23 | 2-64 | NOR | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 8/18/2021.
David DeCastro highlights a list that features miss after miss. Obviously, some of these players did not become what was hoped of them due to other issues. However, all of them were in the top two rounds because they had the talent that made them comparable to a Teven Jenkins.
Whether it was injuries, issues, or failing to catch up after missing so much time as a rookie, these guys were behind the curve and never caught up in a year or many years further.
No one is writing the career of Jenkins off yet, but you do not have a great historical precedent for a player who misses his first year due to injury then goes on to hit the following, or ongoing years.
Fans and media may be starting to wonder why Teven Jenkins fell so far. It is fair that the Bears were so desperate for tackle play, and Jenkins fell far enough that the risk was worth it. At the same time, teams know that injuries like this have long and lingering effects, and expecting Jenkins to have a long and healthy career after this may be optimistic.