The Chicago Bears (9-4) are back at Soldier Field for Week 15, where they are set to face the Cleveland Browns (3-10) in a cold -weather battle.
While the temperature is expected to be in the single digits, the Bears are looking to push their win total to double digits, but they will be successful only if they can accomplish the three following keys to success:
Limit Myles Garrett's impact
Offensively, the Bears' game plan for Sunday starts up front, with a circle around the name Myles Garrett.
The defensive end currently leads the league with 20 sacks, seven more than Brian Burns, who ranks second with 13. Garrett's tally, which is more than three defenses — the Baltimore Ravens, the Carolina Panthers, the San Francisco 49ers — each have as a team, puts him on pace to potentially shatter the single-season record of 22.5.
Needless to say, Garrett will stress the Bears on the edge, especially if he lines up against rookie left tackle Ozzy Trapilo on Caleb Williams' blindside. Still, the offense thus far has done a good job against the league's premier pass rushers. Burns, as well as his entire unit, did not record a sack when he faced the Bears a month ago, and Micah Parsons finished with zero sacks last weekend.
Between Williams' ability to keep plays alive and the offensive line's improvement from last season, the Bears have become one of the league's best at avoiding the significant losses -- they are one of seven teams to allow 1.5 sacks or fewer per game. Still, Garrett will be the biggest test for this team that their schedule, and likely the league, has to offer. Especially if he lines up against Trapilo, the Bears would be smart to send help via backs and tight ends, but if they can limit Garrett's disruption, the offense should be able to move the ball.
Lean on the run game
Outside of keeping Williams clean and upright, the Bears' offense is at its best when the duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai is causing problems on the ground.
The Bears' duo, one of two in the league with two rushers over 600 yards on the year, leads an offense that ranks second in the league with 152 rush yards per game. Since their week four bye, the Bears are 6-0 in games in which they rush for 140+ yards as a team, scoring two touchdowns per game on the ground.
A violent, downhill rushing attack has become the backbone of the Bears' offense, but finding success in the passing game off of that aggressiveness will make the offense nearly unstoppable. The Bears already have the league's fourth-most play action yards on the second-most such attempts, but the passing attack has to find a way to make more plays consistently, whether that includes throwing more accurate passes or catching the ones that come in.
Last week, the Bears' only mistake offensively was failing to find their rhythm in the rushing attack early. With a load of talent at the play-making positions, the Bears have seen. They will continue to find success if they can run the ball effectively, pull opposing safeties into the box, and set up one-on-one opportunities for the likes of DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. It all starts up front, however, and in a brittle, lakefront December showdown, the Bears would be smart to establish the tone early and ride it throughout the game.
Shut down the big plays
Defensively, the Bears have become one of the league's most opportunistic units, highlighted by their league-leading 18 interceptions and 27 total takeaways, but they still struggle to stop the big plays.
Their most recent game serves as a good example, where the Bears allowed three passing touchdowns of 20+ yards in their 28-21 loss. While the secondary had few answers for the Green Bay Packers outside of a first quarter C.J. Gardner-Johnson interception, the Bears' rushing defense was porous as well, allowing 4.3 yards per rush to Josh Jacobs.
The defense can bend without breaking, but it will find greater success if it can limit big gains, especially on third down. On the season, the Bears rank around the middle of the league in defensive third down conversion with just under 39%, a figure that has dropped to 52.6% over the last three weeks.
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The Browns' offense has the talent to create the big, game-changing plays, both through the air and on the ground, thanks in large part to their rookie class. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who averaged 240 passing yards per game in his last three starts, has found a dependable target in rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who leads the team in receptions (59), receiving yards (619) and receiving touchdowns (four), all while rookie running back Quinshon Judkins leads the way with 930 total yards and seven scores. To earn the win, the Bears will have to prevent big plays, especially from this trio.