The Chicago Bears (4-4) look to return to their winning ways in week ten against the New England Patriots (2-7). The Bears' first game at Soldier Field in over a month, Sunday is an opportunity to extend their NFL-leading home winning streak to ten games (including their showing in London) while ending their post-bye week two-game losing skid.
A showdown between two of the top three selections from last April's draft in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, Sunday appears to be a must-win for the Bears as they prepare for six divisional matchups over their last eight games. Despite their record, the rebuilding Patriots will not turn over on the road, and the faltering Bears must accomplish the following three keys to success to get back above .500:
1) Keep Caleb Williams Upright and in the Pocket
Through eight games, the Bears offense has severely struggled to protect their new franchise quarterback. The Bears have already surrendered 28 sacks, the second most in the NFL, and Caleb Williams has been brought down multiple times in all but one game. Giving Williams ample time to throw will lead to the best results, both in terms of production and longevity, but the Bears' offensive line may have their hands full this weekend.
The Patriots have generated just 16 sacks this season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. However, the recent addition of former Bear defensive end Yannick Ngakoue might help kickstart New England's dormant pass rush. Additionally, the Bears have already ruled out Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, and Kiran Amegadjie for Sunday's game. Without any of their top three tackles, look for some combination of Teven Jenkins, Larry Borom, and Matt Pryor to man the bookend positions across the line. Regardless of who the Bears' make-shift line ultimately consists of, consistent blocking from the group will significantly aid the team's passing attack.
2) Get Points on the Board Early
The Bears offense has failed to find their footing early in games, especially recently. Through eight games, the offense has averaged just 1.3 points per game in the first quarter, the second-lowest total in the NFL. Over their last three games, this total drops to zero as the Bears have not scored a first-quarter point in over a month. Additionally, they are one of 12 teams to average less than 10 first-half points per game.
Fortunately for the Bears' offense, the Patriot's defense also suffers from slower starts. New England's 5.6 points allowed per first quarter is ranked in the bottom six of the league, and their 12.2 points allowed per first half currently sits 12th worse. If the Bears can capitalize on this matchup and find offensive success early in the game, their margin for victory will end up a little wider by the end of the game.
3) Prevent the Explosive Plays on Defense
The Bears' recent losses are both defined by one big play that the defense allowed, but these viral, game-breaking moments are actually a microcosm of a larger underlying issue. Defensively, the Bears rank near the top of the league in nearly every statistical category, but they have had issues lately stopping the explosive plays.
Defined as rushes of 10+ yards and passes of 20+ yards, explosive plays are often momentum-swinging moments in games that clearly have an impact on the final score. Looking at their two-game losing streak, the Bears allowed 15 combined explosive plays, including the Hail Mary against Washington and the end of half touchdown scamper versus Arizona. The Bears' previous two wins tell a much different story, as Jacksonville and Carolina combined for just seven such plays over that stretch. If the defense can limit these big chunk plays against Maye and company, the Patriots may find it very difficult to consistently move the ball on one of the league's top defensive units.
4) Win the Turnover Battle
Perhaps no team better epitomizes the importance of winning the turnover battle than the 2024 Chicago Bears. Through eight games, the team that won the turnover battle has won every game but one, with last week's game in Arizona being the sole exception.
Offensively, the Bears turned the ball over just twice over their four wins, a stark comparison to their six turnovers over their four losses. Impressively, the Bears have failed to turn the ball over more than once in their last five games, and they currently rank 7th best in the NFL at protecting the football. Defensively, the Bears have forced a turnover in all but one game, and currently have 15 takeaways, the fourth-best mark in the league. Currently possessing the fifth-best turnover margin in the league, the Bears will find success if the offense can protect the football and the defense is able to consistently take it away from the opponent.