The Chicago Bears (4-3) disappointed last week with their first loss in over a month, but a week nine road game against the Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) may be exactly what Ben Johnson's team needs to get back on the right path.
With several key injuries on offense and defense, it will not come easy on Sunday, even against a Bengals team that has lost five of its last six. If they want to get out of Cincinnati with their fifth win of the season, the Bears will have to accomplish the following four keys to success:
Attack the defense through the air
While the rushing attack -- which will be without D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson on Sunday -- has been the main catalyst for the Bears offense as of late, it has actually been the passing game that the Bears have been able to hang their hats on, especially when it comes to making big plays.
Through seven games, the Bears have averaged 11.3 pass yards per completion, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. Consistently hitting open receivers remains a problem for this young group in general, as exemplified by Caleb Williams' 61.9% completion percentage, which ranks 24th among 31 eligible quarterbacks who have started five or more games. Still, the quarterback's 25 explosive passing plays -- or completions of at least 20 yards -- rank as the sixth most in the league, tied with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
Without two of their top three backs, the Bears may have to lean heavily on the passing attack against the Bengals, which teams have generally been able to do. As a defense, Cincinnati ranks in the bottom five of the NFL in sacks per game (1.38), passing yards allowed per game (256), and passing touchdowns per game (2.4). Even if the Bears' receivers are not at full strength -- Luther Burden III (concussion) -- Williams and his supporting cast should be able to capitalize through the air against a porous defense.
Finish drives in the end zone
While the Bears' offense has been able to move the ball efficiently up and down the field, their most glaring weakness has been their execution in the red zone.
This season, the Bears are one of seven offenses to average a touchdown-red zone conversion rate of less than 50%. Over the last three weeks, that figure has dropped to 33%, the third-worst rate during that span, behind only the Las Vegas Raiders and the Miami Dolphins. The Bears average 3.3 red zone possessions per game, which places them just above the league median. However, in recent weeks, they have not been able to score often enough.
Sunday provides a strong opportunity to improve from these woes, as the Bears face a Bengals defense that is one of three units to allow touchdowns on at least 70% of their red zone possessions. That number worsens -- or improves, depending on perspective -- when at home, where the Bengals allow touchdowns on just 66% of such possessions. As long as the Bears can march down the field, which may be easier said than done with a makeshift rushing attack, they should be able to convert drives into touchdowns more often.
Shut down the dynamic duo
Defensively, the biggest threat to the Bears' success is the Bengals' star wide receiver duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The former's 70 total receptions are 14 more than anybody else's in the NFL, and the latter has scored in each of his last two outings while averaging 20 yards per reception. After losing Joe Burrow during their Week 2 win, the Bengals seem to have found a resurgence with Joe Flacco, the 40-year-old passer they acquired from the Cleveland Browns in an intra-divisional trade.
The Bears rank a little better than league average with 207.4, which may improve with a healthy Tyrique Stevenson returning to his starting boundary corner back position and the recently signed C.J. Gardner-Johnson stepping in to cover the slot. In reality, perhaps more important than the players on the backend are those in front of them. The Bears have averaged two sacks per game, slightly worse than their three sacks per game over the last three outings. During the same span, the Bengals' offense has allowed five total sacks. If the Bears truly want to neutralize Chase and Higgins, they might look first to do better in generating pressures.
Win the turnover battle
Heading into Sunday, the Bears still lead the league with a +10 turnover differential, but last week's loss was a glimpse into what can happen if that number starts to go the other way.
During their four-game winning streak, the Bears' defense forced 15 total turnovers, more than any other team has over the entire season. In their three losses, however, the Bears have recorded just one total takeaway. Flacco has thrown at least one interception in each of his three games with the Bengals. To turn the tide defensively on Sunday, the Bears will have to prove that their past turnover abilities were more than luck.
Offensively, the Bears have done well to avoid turning the ball over. Their six total giveaways are tied for the seventh fewest in the league, even with Williams now coming off back-to-back games with at least one interception for the first time since his second and third career starts.
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The Bengals are about middle of the road with nine total takeaways, but their eight interceptions are tied for the fourth most in the league. If the Bears want to get the win, they will have to avoid giving the ball away to one of the league's best ball-hawking secondaries.