Heading into his second season, Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze garnered all kinds of positive buzz regarding a potential breakout campaign. From a fantasy football angle, he was a popular sleeper with massive upside.
Spurred by touchdowns, five total over the span, Odunze was the WR3 in fantasy from Week 1-4. He was also heavily targeted over that span (8.8 per game). with more than 60 receiving yards in three of those games.
In six games since the Bears' bye week, Odunze has had two or fewer catches and less than 50 yards four times. The low-point was Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals, when he had zero catches on three targets. A rebound in Week 10 against the New York Giants (six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown) was easy to see coming, then came Week 11 against the Minnesota Vikings came (two catches for 41 yards).
From Week 6 to Week 11, with just one touchdown in the six-game span, Odunze is WR36 in fantasy (full PPR; tied for WR51 by points per game).
Fantasy analyst gives Rome Odunze managers hope for Week 12
Amid Odunze not producing consistently for a noticeable chunk of weeks, and with the fantasy playoffs approaching, some of his fantasy managers may have already cut bait by trading him away. But those who hung onto him, or those who likely bought low in said trade, have a glimmer of hope for Week 12.
According to Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life, here's what Odunze has done this season against defenses who play man coverage at a top-10 rate.
-Lions (7-128-2)
-Ravens (7-114-0)
-Giants (6-86-1)
-Commanders (2-32-0 + short TD nullified by penalty)
Up next: Steelers (5th most man coverage, dead last in PPR/game allowed to WRs)
The touchdown that was taken away from him on a flimsy illegal formation penalty would have at least allowed Odunze to salvage that stat line with a touchdown. In the other three games against teams that play among the highest rates of man coverage, he had at least 86 yards and/or scored.
Looking beyond the favorable upcoming matchup against the Steelers, let's look at the rest of Odunze's schedule and the man coverage rates for each of those opponents entering Week 12 (according to Stat Rankings).
Week 13-Philadelphia Eagles (46.58 percent; second-highest)
Week 14-Green Bay Packers (21.64 percent; third-lowest)
Week 15-Cleveland Browns (38.93 percent; ninth-highest)
Week 16-Green Bay Packers (21.64 percent; third-lowest)
Week 17-San Francisco 49ers (25.07 percent; seventh-lowest)
Week 18-Detroit Lions (42.22 percent; sixth-highest)
Taken as a whole, that's not too promising for Odunze to have the strongest possible finish to the season for his fantasy managers. But, he had some success against a couple of defenses that don't play much man coverage earlier in the season.
Week 3, Dallas Cowboys (fifth-lowest man coverage rate entering Week 12): three catches for 62 yards and a touchdown
Week 4, Las Vegas Raiders (second-lowest man coverage rate): four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown
Read more: Trade proposal pushes the Bears to all-in on notable trade deadline inquiry
The ups and downs of recent weeks are not likely to go away for Odunze from here on out. But if he can find his way back to the end zone on a more regular basis, patient fantasy managers may be rewarded when it matters most.