After an electric start to the season, the Chicago Bears have seen their excitement crumble into dread in a matter of days. Caleb Williams is sidelined, Tyson Bagent might not be ready to replace him, and the likelihood of a 1-2 start is drawing dangerously close.
To make matters worse, Dennis Allen's defense could be walking into a disaster against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. The defense will already be at a talent disadvantage, but it just happens that Hurts is at his best against the exact type of defense that Allen likes to play.
This could get ugly in a hurry.
Dennis Allen needs to change his Bears scheme to beat Eagles in Week 3
Only the Cleveland Browns have run man coverage at a higher rate than Allen's Bears so far this season. Chicago has run man coverage at a 44.8% clip, nearly double the league average. In most of those looks, they're playing with one deep safety, which allows for blitzes and "robber" looks but can open up big plays for the offense.
The Bears have talented cornerbacks, but neither Jaylon Johnson nor Tyrique Stevenson has been at their best so far this year. If they choose to lean on man coverage again in Week 3, Jalen Hurts and his top receiver, DeVonta Smith, could have a field day.
As it happens, Hurts has been dominant against man coverage through his first two games. He ranks second in the league in EPA per play, second in success rate, and second in completion percentage against man looks.
Hurts' EPA per play against man coverage of 0.7 is more than double the overall EPA per play of each of the last four MVP quarterbacks. He's automatic in those looks.
The Eagles' QB certainly has his weaknesses. He's not always the best processor, and he can get thrown off by a solid pass rush. But his accuracy is undeniable, making him a threat against man-heavy defenses.
If the Bears roll into Week 3 with the same defensive strategy that they've deployed in their last two games, Hurts could tear them apart.
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Instead, Allen needs to mix up the looks that he throws at Hurts. Even if he maintains man coverage as his go-to defense, he must disguise those looks before the snap. If he doesn't make any changes, the Bears will have little chance against the Eagles in Week 3.
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