Las Vegas oddsmakers have soured on Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson's chances to win the Coach of the Year Award at year's end.
Following his team's blowout 30-16 loss to the Ravens in Week 8, markets for Johnson to win the award hovered between +3000 to +4000. That's a far fall from where he previously stood, around +1000 to +1500.
A +4000 bet means that a $100 wager would win $4000. Similarly, +1000 odds mean a $100 bet would win $1000.
Should Ben Johnson really be in the conversation at this point in the season?
Coach of the Year awards winners typically lead teams that either outperform expectations, or take a big step forward out of a rebuild. Johnson was among the favorites early in the year due to his opportunity to help the Bears and Caleb Williams improve both in the stats sheet and in the standings.
But if the Bears hover around .500 for the rest of the year, it won't be good enough for Johnson to take home the hardware.
It's reasonable to put part of the Bears struggles at Johnson's feet, but largely he's seemed to do a good job of setting up a new foundation for the Bears to build sustained success.
According to NFLpenalties.com, the Bears are second in the NFL with a whopping 9.1 penalties per game average. Of those, 3.7 are pre-snap penalties, which have specifically held back the offense in big moments.
Typically, coaches take the blame for teams with poor discipline like that, but after Sunday's loss, Johnson put the onus on the players.
"I really put it on the leaders in that locker room," Johnson told reporters in Baltimore. "Us coaches, we've been pounding that drum now for a while and we haven't gotten the results we wanted. So, it's on the leaders here on this team to get it right."
Johnson ran a strict program during his first training camp and often shut down plays if something wasn't right. A missed alignment, motion or a penalty would almost always lead to loud critiques and sometimes a personnel swap.
He's also done a good job of putting players in a position to succeed. Several times per game we've seen players schemed open for easy completions. After the bye week, small tweaks in the run game have helped the offensive line to open up holes for D'Andre Swift. While there have been small hiccups in playcalling choices-- like Johnson's decision to run a QB sneak on 3rd-and-Goal as time ticked down in the game-- for the most part he's built a good rhythm and hasn't fallen into common pitfalls like abandoning the run.
Bottom line, though, if the Bears don't win, neither will Johnson.
The current favorite to win Coach of the Year is Shane Steichen, who's got the Colts rolling at 7-1. He's currently listed at around +105 to +120 to win.
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The last Bears coach to win the award was Matt Nagy in 2018, when he led the Bears to a 12-4 record and their first playoff appearance since 2010.