Caleb Williams game-winning TD pass to DJ Moore lands in elite analytic company

If we needed more evidence of how brilliant Caleb Williams' game-winning TD pass to DJ Moore was, we have some.
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A week after a touchdown pass to DJ Moore on a throw he and maybe a few other quarterbacks would even attempt, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams did it again in a bigger spot against the Green Bay Packers in Week 16.

After an improbable rally to force overtime, and the Packers botching a snap for a turnover on downs on the opening possession of the extra 10 minutes, the Bears wasted little time to go for the win. On the fourth play of their first overtime possession, Williams to Moore 46 yards for the victory.

According to Next Gen Stats, that 46-yard touchdown to Moore was the third-longest completion of Williams' career by air distance traveled (56.9 yards). NGS also noted that Moore had just 0.6 yards of separation from the coverage of Packers' cornerback Keisean Nixon on the catch.

As Tom Brady said during the game broadcast, crediting Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino, "there's no defense for a perfect throw." And Williams' throw to Moore to beat the Packers, especially when considering the big spot it came in, was about as good as it gets.

Caleb Williams game-winning TD to DJ Moore earned some elite company

Pro Football Focus is easy to criticize for those who want to do so, but it does provide an extra window into football evaluation to add to our understanding of the game. However, how they arrive at their grades, whether on a per-play or overall basis, can be challenging to understand fully. Sometimes, grades don't match the eye test.

As PFF finalized their grades from the Packers-Bears Week 16 game, analyst Dalton Wasserman confirmed a lofty evaluation of Williams' game-winning touchdown pass to Moore.

"REVIEWED AND CONFIRMED!!!"

"Caleb Williams' game-winning TD is the FIRST throw this season to earn a +2 on the PFF Grade scale (the highest grade possible)"

"It is just the 31st throw in PFF history, including preseason and playoffs, to earn a +2"

PFF has been around since 2006, which makes this their 20th season. How they do things has evolved/changed since that starting point, but out of hundreds of thousands of throws, across the preseason, regular season, and playoffs, Williams' game-winning touchdown to Moore is just the 31st throw to earn the highest grade possible from the site. It was also the first throw, and it will at minimum stand as one of the few throws to earn that lofty +2 mark this season.

Read more: DJ Moore gives all the credit to two people for Bears' success this season

Not that anyone needed further proof of how great Williams' throw to Moore was, but it's nice when the analytics fortify what the eye test obviously showed.

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