Caleb Williams has had an up-and-down start to his 2025 season, with Monday night's performance against the Commanders acting as a sort of microcosm for the year as a whole.
It turns out, his highlight reels and stat sheets should probably look a lot more impressive.
Following the Bears' 25-24 comeback win in Washington, Williams has a 61.6% completion rate. That's far below the 70% completion rate that head coach Ben Johnson said he wanted from Williams near the beginning of training camp.
NFL's Next Gen Stats say he should be outpacing that goal, though. Their analytics say his expected completion percent should be 71.5%. That's the highest xCOMP% through Week 6. The -9.9% difference between his xCOMP% and his actual completion percent is also the most significant in the NFL.
How should Bears fans look at Williams' stats he leads the NFL in?
There are a couple of ways you can look at the disparity.
On one hand, the numbers suggest that Williams is less accurate than the average QB making the same throws. Next Gen Stats creates the xCOMP% number by looking at the "completion probability" of every throw based on factors like how deep the pass is, the distance between the target receiver and the nearest defender, and how much pressure the QB is facing.
If a QB struggles to make "easy" throws, their xCOMP% will go down. If they have a penchant for completing "tough" throws, the xCOMP% goes up. That helps discern between a QB who pumps up their COMP% with check downs and a QB who takes more chances down the field with low probability throws.
On the other hand, the huge discrepancy might suggest that Williams isn't getting great help from his playmakers. Rome Odunze has been a breakout star in Chicago this year, but he's dropped two catchable balls, per PFF.
Tight end Cole Kmet dropped what could've been a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 4. Olamide Zaccheaus similarly dropped a layup on Monday night that should've gone for a considerable gain.
Williams is the latest polarizing Bears quarterback in a long line of such quarterbacks, with some fans ready to quit on him or label him a "bust" —before he's even made 25 starts in the NFL. Others were ready to build a statue of him after last season's win against the Packers. Both camps are premature in their assessments.
There are reasons to believe Williams will finally be the franchise quarterback that the Bears have never had. There are areas where he needs to improve to fully realize that potential.
Read more: Bear Goggles On's fan-voted player of the game for Bears vs. Commanders revealed
How you feel about these numbers could be another Rorschach test for those looking to confirm those beliefs.