Analytics expert delivers cold verdict on Caleb Williams (and it's dead wrong)

Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams | David Banks-Imagn Images

Caleb Williams made an astronomical jump in Year 2. Ben Johnson made all the difference for this Chicago Bears offense, and Williams, in particular. He is far from a finished product, but Williams is certainly on his way to becoming a superstar.

His critics, though, have continued to use simple numbers to downplay his ascension. One area, in particular, keeps getting brought up -- and Bears fans are sick of it.

Noted analytics expert Cynthia Frelund of NFL Media has been a systems and numbers aficionado for a while now. Football fans have seen her projections and analytical style of coverage on NFL Network, and, to be frank, she does phenomenal work.

But, when appearing on the air with the noted die-hard Bears fan and fellow NFL Network peer, Adam Rank, she offered an opinion that won't sit well with this fan base. When asked where she is on Williams, she didn't hesitate with this response:

"I need to see more. He had a 58% completion percentage."

The Caleb Williams-completion percentage narrative is getting old to Chicago Bears fans

Many of us know this by now, and we're tired of it. Yes, Williams finished near the bottom of the league in completion percentage. And, there are potentially a few reasons why. We can get into those another time.

But to lead with the completion percentage argument is so tiring at this point. If we're talking about Caleb Williams, we are talking about a quarterback who broke the single-season NFL record for comeback victories in a season, with six.

Oh, and there was a seventh that came in the postseason over that team a little further north.

I've mentioned this recently, but I will say it again: Williams had more passing yards and passing touchdowns in the fourth quarter last season than in any other quarter. He was arguably the best fourth quarter passer in the league in 2025.

Of course, we need to see more. We want to see more. We want to see Williams get more in sync with his wide receivers. We want to see him hit some of the easier throws when they are there.

But the narrative around him shouldn't be anything other than "the arrow is pointing way up." The verdict shouldn't be that we "need to see more."

The areas for improvement are fairly obvious. But the positives are so positive, especially when looking at what this franchise has been accustomed to for so long. Williams takes care of the football better than most. He is great at avoiding sacks.

And, when you consider he'd rather throw the ball away than risk an interception, along with the fact that he led the NFL in yards lost due to drops, the entire premise of a completion percentage argument looks bleaker by the second.

Williams is a budding superstar. There is no other way around it. That's the fact of the matter.

Read more: Bears Hall of Famer just revealed why Kyle Monangai proved his doubters wrong

With all of that said, I beg the question: can we stop with the completion percentage thing, just for a little while, at least?

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