This offseason has been a reminder after a reminder that the Chicago Bears have the toughest schedule in the NFL going into 2026 and that there's a chance they could miss the playoffs.
That chatter did not die down after the 2026 NFL schedule was released, as the noise just grew louder for the Bears. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder shared some data from the NFL Football Power Index for 2026, which shows the Bears are ranked 16th in the FPI Rankings at +1.2, but not looking like a team that would make the playoffs.
"It's less likely than it might seem. Chicago broke through last season, going 11-6 to win the NFC North and adding its first playoff win in 15 years. But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago's defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays. Plus, while quarterback Caleb Williams delivered repeated jaw-dropping plays, he also ranked only 16th in QBR. The Bears might show growth in 2026 and become the Super Bowl contender their fans hope for them to be. But FPI does not see that as a likelihood because of the combination of last season's metrics and the first-place schedule they'll face in 2026. Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North -- roughly half of the Lions' chances."
Bears are looking like the numbers are not adding up in their favor
The main problem is that the Bears are in the toughest division in football, as all four NFC North teams finished with winning records last year. All eyes are on the Detroit Lions, as they have the easiest schedule in the NFL and could be poised not only to take the NFC North crown from the Bears but also to make a run in the playoffs.
Chicago just has way too many nightmare matchups in 2026 to deal with. The Bears have to play the whole NFC North twice, as well as the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and many more.
In order for the Bears to make the playoffs, the magic number is going to have to be 10 to be safely in the postseason. It may take them 12 wins in 2026 to be comfortable winning the NFC North, with the Lions, Packers, and Vikings showing improvement.
Read more: Madden 27 gave the Caleb Williams confirmation that'll have Bears fans fired up
The reality is that all these numbers and predictions are just showing that no one really believes in the Bears, as they are looking at 2025 as a fluke. This Bears team still has the same talent they had last year and can replicate that success, so the NFL better watch out for a more motivated team.
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