Here in late-January, with plenty of time to get right, the Chicago Bears are more than $17 million in the red against the salary cap (according to Over The Cap). That number will change when the league locks in the salary cap limit for each team this year, but the Bears have some work to do if they're going to be able to do much of anything in free agency.
One way to clear some noticeable salary cap space, albeit with a noticeable dead money hit too (pre-June 1), would be to trade wide receiver DJ Moore. Otherwise, it's hard to see very many obvious, outright cut candidates. So contract restructures, which can be less than ideal for the balance sheet in future years, appear to be the easiest path for Chicago to clear cap space this offseason.
Still, as Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report proposed the three most likely cap casualties for each NFL team, he had to come up with three for the Bears.
Ballentine has tight end Cole Kmet, running back D'Andre Swift, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds as his most likely cap casualties for the Bears. $8.4 million, $7.47 million, and $15 million can be cleared, respectively, via a pre-June 1 cut.
Bears' path to clearing over $30 million in cap space is paved with obvious nuance
If you're doing the math at home, the Bears can clear a total of $30.87 million in cap space by cutting Kmet, Swift, and Edmunds. Here's Ballentine's case for cutting each guy, starting with Kmet.
"The Chicago Bears are going to have to perform a bit of a tightrope act this offseason. After having a breakthrough campaign they don't want to shake up the core too much, but they have work to do to be cap compliant by the start of the new league year in March."
"That dynamic could make Kmet a logical cap casualty. Colston Loveland was clearly the team's top tight end and led the team in receiving. The Bears are set to pay Kmet $11.6 million this season which is a lot to pay for a second tight end."
Yes, Kmet's pay does not match his role as the Bears' TE2 behind Colston Loveland. But cutting Kmet without entertaining trading him would be foolish, since he can definitely be the No. 1 tight end on multiple other teams. There's also a solid case for keeping Kmet, given how often Ben Johnson deploys two tight ends.
Next up for Ballentine was Swift.
"D'Andre Swift eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time as a Bear. But Kyle Monangai's efficiency and Ben Johnson track record for creating a dynamic rushing attack could have him in cut consideration territory."
"The Bears have to find ways to get cheaper at some positions and pairing Monangai with a rookie running back could be a way to do that. Swift averaged 3 yards before contact so the Bears offensive line and scheme were doing a lot of the work for him."
The notion that Swift could be gone this offseason cooled over the course of the season, but now it might be heating up again, and if the Bears have a pivot option in mind, they could entertain it. Entering the final year of his contract, Swift ostensibly has some trade value.
And finally, Ballentine offered Edmunds as a cap casualty for the Bears.
"Edmunds barely makes the cut because of the role that he plays in the Bears defense. His athleticism in the middle gives the Bears a true threat to match up with tight ends and create some turnovers (four interceptions in 2025). However, cutting Edmunds is the biggest cost-cutting move the Bears could make outside of restructures."
"He's set to cost $17.4 million and nearly all of that would be gone if the Bears cut him. He's only 27, but he did miss four games this season with a groin injury. It feels more likely that he would be headed to a contract extension that could push money into the future, but linebacker is not a premium position so a cut could be considered."
Edmunds had a rebound season in Dennis Allen's defensive scheme this year, leading the Bears with 112 total tackles while generally being more noticeable in a good way (four interceptions and nine pass breakups). There is a potential internal replacement for the 27-year-old, but a good deal of projecting what that player could do in a starting role is interlaced in that conversation.
Edmunds also would likely have some trade value.
Sheerly projecting Kmet, Swift, and Edmunds as cap casualties for the Bears ignores the basic idea that all three of them have a level of trade value. Importance to the team (particularly Kmet and Edmunds) and a plan to replace them (all three) must also be accounted for.
Read more: Bears predicted to land interesting free agent option to bolster their pass rush
It's easy to be enticed by the possibility of clearing nearly $31 million in cap space. But it's more complicated than that for the Bears with these three players, and those nuances can't be ignored.