After a, let's call it disappointing, rookie season in 2024, the arrow pointed up for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams heading into last season. While he still has some work to do, he was better and finished as the QB6 in fantasy.
Give him back even a small portion of the 404 yards he lost to drops, according to Next Gen Stats, and Williams would have been a top-five fantasy quarterback last year. Another offseason in Ben Johnson's offense, and a general honing of his accuracy, and Williams clearly has another level or two in him.
If we were to put numbers to what that next level looks like for Williams in 2026, 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns through the air is a viable projection. Add in whatever he does on the ground, and fantasy managers will take notice.
Caleb Williams garners inexplicable post-draft fantasy evaluation for 2026
Fantasy Pros asked some of their analysts for the veteran player they feel is the biggest post-draft loser, rooted in changed circumstances. Amid some usual suspects like Tyler Allgeier and Jerry Jeudy, Ryan McCrystal of Sharp Football Analysis dropped Williams' name in.
"The Bears drafted two skill-position players on Day 2, which normally boosts a quarterback’s value. But Sam Roush, at least in the short term, will just be used as a blocking tight end. And Zavion Thomas was one of the biggest reaches of the draft and is likely only a return specialist. The addition of a legitimate weapon could have elevated Williams’ ceiling, but instead, he likely remains a low-end fantasy starter.”
Yes, investing two top-90 overall picks in skill position players would tend to help a quarterback's fantasy value. But the Bears have already acknowledged, for better or worse, that Thomas' offensive role won't necessarily be as robust as a rookie given the complexity of Johnson's offense.
After restructuring Cole Kmet's contract to all but take an offseason trade off the table completely, Roush is likely to wait his turn as the TE3 entering the season.
There is no significant expectation, from anywhere, that Thomas or Roush will be relied on to play a huge weekly role in the Bears' passing game as rookies.
Going back to McCrystal's final note, Williams, as the QB6, wasn't "a low-end fantasy starter" last year. So how could he "remain" one this year?
While more talent around the quarterbacks is preferred, Williams has three legit weapons in Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze. And all three, for one reason or another, were not top targets for him through the entire course of last season. If at least a couple of them are this year, that raises Williams' fantasy stock.
Read more: Former Bears star confirmed what Kalif Raymond will bring to the table
But sure, the Bears' signal caller is a post-draft fantasy "loser" because they didn't add anything notable enough around him during the draft.
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