Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens was supposed to be a get-right spot for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, against a defense that had been surprisingly one of the worst in the league up to that point. But, as has been the story of his career thus far, it was a mixed bag of good, bad, sometimes excellent, and outright puzzling in a 14-point loss.
As the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, Williams has more pressure on him than a lot of quarterbacks. After a turbulent rookie season, it was always going to be a process to get him on the right track as Ben Johnson implemented his offense. Still, it seems some Bears fans expected immediate consistency, and their faith in Williams wavers to extremes each week, depending on how he played.
So this week, after that performance against Baltimore, some are wondering whether Williams is the guy —and then some. Which isn't to say there aren't issues that need to be fixed, which ideally, in some cases, he'd be on a better track toward fixing. But let's not forget he has made 24 NFL starts, and Johnson had to build up his young quarterback in some very fundamental ways.
ESPN analyst offers calm analysis of Caleb Williams
ESPN's Ben Solak took a look at some developments up to this point in the NFL season, led by his take on what's been going on with Williams. The title of that section, "Caleb Williams is fine, Everybody relax" was followed by analysis to prove that thesis statement.
"I understand why Bears fans are frustrated..... In that frustration, the ability to calibrate to Williams' play has been lost. Because he has been relatively disappointing, that must mean he is outright disappointing. I strongly disagree. He has been good this season. We haven't seen the things that were promised -- stupendous, life-changing, franchise-resurrecting play -- but he hasn't been bad. Not just decent -- better than decent. He has been good!"
Solak noted how Williams' EPA per drop back (0.03) this season is in close range of September MVP candidate Baker Mayfield's (0.05), and better than Jayden Daniels' (0.02). Which brought Solak around to just shy of calling out Bears' fans.
"If Williams were performing last season as he is this season, Bears fans would likely feel encouraged and excited to see his development."
Solak then dove into the mixed bag Williams has been, including a below league-average success rate through the air and the seventh-best explosive play rate (17.8 percent). It's clear that he issues Williams has had are not all on him. But things like a lack of chemistry with DJ Moore, going back to last season, and the procedural penalties the Bears offense has had ultimately fall on the quarterback, even if it's not fully deserved.
In terms of Williams inconsistent accuracy, Solak offered a comp Bears fans should take solace in if they think he's on the Kyler Murray/Trevor Lawrence path to mediocrity: Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
"Through Allen's first two pro seasons, he had an off-target rate of 23.5%. Williams is at 21.3%. Like Williams, Allen was clearly physically capable of making all the requisite throws. But he was excitable in the pocket, his mechanics vacillated from throw to throw, and his shot selection was high difficulty. The light bulb went on for Allen in Year 3 under Brian Daboll -- and after plenty of private offseason work on his mechanics. The light bulb can come on for Williams just the same, if he does the work, and the football-consuming public gives him the time."
Williams didn't have to wait until his third season to have a coach who could guide him to stardom. It's also notable that Johnson offered a different and surprising assessment of Williams' performance against Baltimore, looking beyond the disappointing result.
Read more: Ben Johnson does not waver in making a demand from Bears' locker room
If we're still talking about the same issues (accuracy, etc.) we're discussing now at the end of the season, then the time to have a broader, harsher conversation will grow closer. But Williams is seven games into his second season, and into running a new offense. So he should be allowed some leeway to figure it out, and there are signs he is.