If he had been eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft and had declared, Luther Burden probably would've been a first-round pick. But he had to stay for one more year at Missouri, and after a down final season there, he fell into the Chicago Bears' laps in the second round (pick No. 39) of last April's draft.
All season long. Burden has teased the ability that still had some people tabbing him as a potential first-round pick heading into the 2025 draft. But he was not playing a whole lot of snaps, then he suffered a concussion that cost him a game.
In recent weeks, with no excuses left, Burden has finally overtaken Olamide Zaccheaus as the Bears' No. 3 wide receiver. He has 16 targets over the last three games, while playing a shade over half of the offensive snaps in each of the previous two contests.
But even with the increased opportunities he has earned, Burden's production has yet to really take off. He has not topped 50 yards since Week 10 against the New York Giants, and he hasn't gotten to 40 yards in two of the last three games.
With five games left in his rookie season, it feels like a matter of time before things come fully together for Burden.
Luther Burden's opportunity to fully break out is (finally) here
Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze got off to a fast start this season, with five touchdowns over the first four games. His decline in production over the last several weeks has coincided with his battling a nagging heel/foot injury, and after not practicing all week, he will miss Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.
Even amid his recent struggles, injury-impacted or otherwise, Odunze has at least six targets in six of the last seven games, and he leads the Bears in targets this season by a fair margin. He also rarely leaves the field, playing 88 percent of the offensive snaps so far this season.
Someone will have to step into the void Odunze is leaving behind. DJ Moore will become the proverbial No. 1 receiver for the Bears on Sunday, but Burden will move to No. 2 in the pecking order with the requisite bump in snaps. Zaccheaus is also in line for more work in Odunze's absence, for better or worse.
According to Stat Rankings, the Packers play zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league this season (77.5 percent). Among wide receivers with a minimum of 10 targets against zone this season, Burden is second in average yards of separation (2.68) and tied for 16th in yards per route run (2.5).
As ESPN's Courtney Cronin noted in a preview of Sunday's game, while the Packers play zone, all five of Caleb Williams' interceptions this season have come against zone coverage. So he would do well to heavily target a receiver who succeeds at a high level against zone.
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Rookies often take some time to put it all together, and Burden has been no different after missing a lot of time in training camp due to injury. Now, in Week 14 against the Bears' biggest rival with Odunze out, his opportunity for a full-on breakout game has arrived.