Caleb Williams was thought to be walking into an unrivaled situation for a No. 1 overall pick quarterback last year, and during a 4-2 start to the season for the Chicago Bears it kind of looked that way. But we know how if went from there, with dismal loss to the Washington Commanders starting a 10-game losing streak on the way to a 5-12 final record.
Amid a unique lack of continuity within one season, with two head coaches and three offensive coordinators, Williams struggled in multiple areas as a rookie. Chief among them was pocket presence, as he took a league-high 68 sacks, and a surprising lack of consistent accuracy.
Better coaching and an improved offensive line will set Williams on a far better track in Year 2. Then his natural talent can thrive, along with taking a natural step of progress on the mental side of playing quarterback in the NFL.
Pro Football Focus gives frank (and not all bad) assessment of Caleb Williams' rookie season
Williams topped 3,500 passing yards with 20 touchdowns last season, along with a slightly below league average completion rate (62.5 percent). But he also threw just six interceptions, as he posted the third-lowest interception rate in the league (1.1 percent). Some of that low interception total came from taking so many sacks, but it's certainly better than the alternative.
Nick Akridge of Pro Football Focus recently took a deeper look at Williams' rookie season, starting by noting the five weeks where he was a top-12 graded quarterback. Interestingly, four of those performances occurred over two sets of consecutive weeks (Weeks 5 and 6; Weeks 11 and 12).
Getting into more of the good from last season, Akridge noted how Williams was quite good in a key area.
"How a quarterback performs over the middle of the field is a great indicator of how well they are seeing the field. The windows are smaller, thus requiring the pass to always be on time. Williams recorded a 91.7 PFF passing grade on throws over the middle of the field in his last season at USC — the sixth-best mark in the FBS. In his rookie season, he showed some flashes of that ability, making 10 big-time throws on middle-of-the-field throws — the fourth most in the NFL. It's good to see young quarterbacks test what they can and can’t get away with in the NFL, and Williams shows no fear when throwing into tight windows downfield."
"Williams has always had the arm talent and velocity to fit balls into those spaces; it's just matter of being willing to take the chance. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson’s offense thrives over the middle of the field, so keep an eye on how Williams adjusts to the scheme."
Williams posted a 78.9 PFF grade against the blitz, which per Akridge would have been the best for a rookie quarterback since 2016 if not for Jayden Daniels last year. Williams' 11 "big time" throws against the blitz were tied for fourth-most in the league.
On the bad side, Akridge put numbers behind the areas Williams was not good in as a rookie .
On the accuracy front:
"His 73.4% adjusted completion rate this past season tied for 29th, and his 23.4% rate of uncatchable throws ranked 43rd."
And, in regard to taking sacks:
"While his offensive line had some rough moments, Williams was charged with 17 sacks, the most in the NFL."
Williams gets some benefit of the doubt after a turbulent rookie season. Akridge alluded to that as part of his bottom line assessment, while also reinforcing where Year 2 expectations are based on a better dynamic around him.
"Caleb Williams' rookie season might not be one that we’ll look back on and say it was a great success, but year one doesn’t make or break an NFL quarterback. Williams flashed incredible talent, in addition to some frustrating moments typical of a rookie quarterback. He was involved in a tumultuous season, including the firing of his offensive coordinator and head coach before the season ended."
"The Bears responded with a massive commitment to upgrade their offensive line this offseason and a widely touted hiring of one of the NFL's best play-callers, Ben Johnson, as their head coach. Williams should have a far better supporting cast in his sophomore season as he continues to develop."
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Whether certain things were in his control or not, it was easy to focus on the bad from Williams' rookie season. But his outlook is as promising as any young quarterback's in the league, and when we look back on his second season there should be a lot more good than bad.