The Chicago Bears made a significant free agent investment in running back D'Andre Swift, and they predictably force-feed him nearly 300 touches (295) despite eroding efficiency (3.3 yards per carry, 4.2 yards per touch over the final seven games of the season).
The hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach put Swift on the hot seat entering the offseason, based on their shared history with the Detroit Lions. But the Bears ultimately could not add someone to unseat Swift in the fashion they may have wanted to, so he'll get his chance to prove he can be a viable workhorse back this season.
In the fantasy football realm and otherwise, you can certainly find positivity around Swift. The root of that is a suppressed Average Draft Position (ADP) and being the (presumably) clear-cut lead back in what should be a good offense. There is a realistic path to Swift delivering as a fantasy sleeper this year, based on being in line for sheer touch volume.
D'Andre Swift put in category of fantasy RB he can't live up to
Among three dark horse candidates to finish as the RB1 in fantasy this year, Jonathan Macri of Pro Football Focus has Swift as his long shot. Not an RB1, "the" RB1.
"The long shot option always feels unlikely, but in each of the past two seasons, our long shot has finished as RB11 (2024 James Conner) and RB7 (2023 Joe Mixon), despite both typically being drafted outside the top 15 at their position. In Conner’s case last year, he was drafted outside the top 20. Swift is also going in a similar range as Conner last season, and much like with Conner, there is an encouraging potential workload to help push him toward that top-12 range. The difference between the two right now is that Conner was coming off career-high marks as a runner the previous year, while Swift is not and needs to improve in 2025."
Macri then hit the appropriate notes about the greatly improved situation for the Bears' offense ("built to sustain a fantasy RB1"), in a "the rising tide raises all ships" vein as it pertains to Swift. It's notable the Bears did not take a running back until the seventh round of April's draft (Kyle Monangai), but that was not due to a lack of desire to do it sooner.
Macri charted out the path for Swift to finish as the RB1 in fantasy this year.
Swift absolutely checks two of the five boxes on the path to being the RB1--"Path to double-digit carries per came" and "History of 15 PPR points per game". In the "Borderline" category is "Path to 4.5 targets per game" and "Optimal scoring opportunities." In the "No" category, as expected in light of his last two seasons in a high-volume role, is "Overall efficiency."
Read more: Unheralded piece of Bears offensive line is starting to get noticed
If Swift gets the kind of touch volume he had last season, or somewhere close to it, an RB1 (top-12) finish is in play this year. And with that, there's value/upside in his RB2/RB3 ADP. But even the faint idea he could finish as the RB1, as a fully admitted long shot, is a step too far.