The Chicago Bears kicked off 2024 free agency, literally minutes after the "legal tampering" period started, by signing running back D'Andre Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. There was certainly a level of pressure to justify the investment on multiple sides, and Swift registered career-highs in carries (253), touches) and games played (17).
On the flipside, Swift also failed to reach 1,000 yards on the ground as he averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. A struggling offensive line was not a great help, but according to Next Gen Stats he was last among running backs with at least 90 carries in Rushing Yards Over Expected (-174), Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (-0.69) and Rush Percentage Over Expected (28.8 percent).
In fantasy football terms for 2025, there's optimism and pessimism on Swift in virtually equal measure.
Jason Moore of "The Fantasy Footballers" podcast put it perfectly when he said "I don't wanna draft him" when Swift was a discussion topic during the July 1 episode.
D'Andre Swift has one clear path to delivering on idea he's a fantasy football sleeper
According to Ryan Wooden of CBS Sports, Sportsline's prediction model has revealed Swift as a fantasy sleeper for 2025.
"One of the 2025 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Bears running back D'Andre Swift. Most people are focusing on quarterback Caleb Williams' potential uptick in production with former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson taking over as the Chicago head coach, but look at how dominant the Lions were on the ground under Johnson and that should excite you about Swift's potential. The Lions ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards per game last year and sixth the year before, and that's without a quarterback who is any threat on the ground. All the rushing production came from the running backs, and Swift is in line for a bulk of those opportunities this season."
Bears head coach Ben Johnson knows what it looks like to give, or try to give, Swift workhorse-level volume. The last two seasons, his lone one with the Philadelphia Eagles and his first with the Bears, have solidified that point of progressively diminishing returns. So it's unlikely Swift tops 250 carries, or nears 300 touches, this season.
Wooden then highlighted the rosy side of what Swift did last year, with notes about his history with Johnson.
"Swift had a career-high 1,345 yards from scrimmage last season and finished inside the top 20 Fantasy football scoring running backs. The 26-year-old played his first three years in Detroit with Johnson on the coaching staff, so the two are familiar with one another. When Johnson was the Lions' passing game coordinator in 2021, Swift had a career-high 62 receptions in just 13 games. Expect Johnson to use Swift in the passing game as well to increase his Fantasy football appeal with the potential to be a top 2025 Fantasy football sleeper."
Swift's history with Johnson is notable, in good and bad ways. Wooden highlighted his 62 receptions over just 13 games in 2021. But the following year, Johnson's first as Detroit's offensive coordinator, Swift averaged a career low in carries per game (7.1; 99 carries over 14 games) and a career-best in yards per attempt (5.5).
After that season, Lions head coach Dan Campbell was left without answers for how to keep Swift healthy over the long haul of a season. He was traded less than two months later.
If (when) Swift gets less overall touch volume this season, Roschon Johnson and rookie Kyle Monangai don't look like serious threats to his role as the primary pass-catching back for the Bears. So that is the most straightforward path to him delivering on a sleeper-worthy ADP that has fallen to high-end RB3 territory in full and 0.5-point PPR.
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Any other path, in line with thinking/assuming he won't cede a notable chunk of carries to his backups, is riddled with potential disappointment for fantasy managers.