Toiling as the No. 3 wide receiver in a struggling offense was not ideal for Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze as a rookie, and his numbers showed it (54 receptions for 734 yards and three touchdowns, on 101 targets).
Heading into Year 2 for Odunze, the Bears are sure to have a far more efficient offense and the high-end of possible outcomes is in play for multiple players. For Odunze, high-end numbers in some metrics (average depth of target, etc.) did not translate to notable raw numbers last year. He'll be a clear beneficiary of Caleb Williams becoming a more comfortable and more confident quarterback, to say nothing of a having play-caller who will find the most effective ways to deploy him.
Different sources have different numbers, but Odunze was in the top part of the league in red zone targets last year. According to Pro Football Reference he had just six catches on 17 red zone targets with three touchdowns (two touchdowns in one game). In a season marked by inefficiency for the entire Bears' offense, Odunze was one of the most obvious poster boys.
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Within the context of trying to predict who will score more touchdowns from one year to the next, ESPN's Mike Clay offered this nugget.
"During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 169 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 169, 114 (67.5%) scored more touchdowns the next season."
Odunze obviously fits into the "fewer than five touchdowns" category" from 2024, so he became low-hanging fruit to make Clay's list of nine players who will score more touchdowns in 2025.
"Of the 11 players who handled 13-plus end zone targets last season, Odunze (who had exactly 13) was the only one with fewer than five TDs. The 2024 No. 9 overall pick was on the field a ton as a rookie (eighth among WRs in routes), but uneven QB play limited his efficiency (nine of the 13 end zone targets weren't catchable and his 37% overall off-target rate was second highest among WRs). A second-year improvement from Caleb Williams would go a long way for Odunze."
Based on the history Clay noted, Odunze has a little better than a two out of three chance to score more touchdowns this year. To that end, Clay projected him for seven touchdowns, which almost feels low based on the litany of incredibly inefficient numbers in the red zone (and narrowed to the end zone) last year.
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But let's not greedy right now. More than doubling his touchdown this year would be a good thing for Odunze, and it would be a huge sign the Bears' offense was far more more functional in the red zone.