If you are on any form of social media, then you have probably seen the image of Caleb Williams running out of the tunnel with the following caption:
"QB's drafted No.1 overall are 0-14-1 in their first start since 2002."
I could not determine who created the social media post so I could not give the creator credit. However, I did some additional digging into how well rookie quarterbacks who are taken first overall perform.
Unfortunately, first-overall QBs have not done well in their rookie seasons. Of the past 11 quarterbacks that went first overall, only Andrew Luck had a winning season in his first year. The win-loss record of these 10 quarterbacks is 51-101-2, or 36%. Not good.
This winning percentage in their rookie seasons does not dictate their careers though. In fact, Joe Burrow made it to the Super Bowl in just his second season. Then why does everything feel different when it comes to Caleb Williams this year?
I should point out that many of these quarterbacks had some decent stats during their rookie year. Seven of the 11 threw for over 3,500 yards and three of those seven broke 4,000 yards -- Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Jameis Winston. Stats aren't as important as wins though, even though wins are not a quarterback stat.
Again, why does everything feel a little different when it comes to Caleb Williams? The answer is simple The Bears did not truly own the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. In actuality, they were not even in the top three and moved up to one. The Chicago Bears instead won seven games in 2023 and were only able to select Caleb Williams first overall because they traded their first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Panthers who selected Bryce Young. They clearly got that one wrong! As a matter of fact, this trade might go down as the best in Bears' history and the worst in Panthers' history.
With how well the Chicago Bears performed last season, adding a top-level quarterback prospect like Caleb Williams and even the additional drafting of Rome Odunze at ninth overall, the Bears have set themselves up like no other team in recent history. This is why, Caleb Williams has a chance to make history. Let's look at the image once again and then I'll address the possibility of Williams continuing down this path of losing.
I’ve seen this going around and I’m conflicted.
— Rob Schwarz Jr. (@ChiRuxinBGO) September 4, 2024
1. I originally had #DaBears losing Week 1 and Week 2 but still going 10-7.
2. I recently changed that to winning Week 1 and going 11-6.
3. Caleb Williams was drafted into a situation unlike most (probably any) other 1st-overall… pic.twitter.com/g15ZCbZNBc
There is no guarantee that the Chicago Bears win on Sunday, but Caleb Williams has the best chance of breaking this 0-14-1 record. The Bears are even -4 point favorites to beat the Titans this weekend. It is possible that Tennessee wins, but DeAndre Hopkins is dealing with a torn MCL. The Titans' offensive line is suspect. Not to mention, the biggest factor might be Will Levis playing quarterback. They do have a strong defensive line that could cause some headaches for Chicago, but on paper, the Bears should win this game.