The Chicago Bears 2024 schedule just became more difficult

The start of the 2024 regular season is less than a week away. The Chicago Bears seem poised for what should be a transition out of the basement and into a penthouse. I use the word should because I want to temper expectations knowing that it can take time for a rookie quarterback to adjust to the NFL. Even Patrick Mahomes struggled a bit (no touchdowns and 1 interception) in his first game. The reality is that many (including myself) saw the Bears' schedule this season and instantly thought it would be a bit of a cakewalk outside of the NFC North.

One reason for this thought process was the fact that Chicago was going into 2024 with the third-easiest strength of schedule. I'll note that the "strength of schedule" isn't an easy thing to predict. It is predicated on how well teams did the year before plus a few other determining factors. It's also based on Vegas odds makers who set a mark for each team's over/under on wins each season. The Chicago Bears are facing a big chunk of teams that are not expected to finish with winning records this season. That said, how many wins were the Texans predicted to win last year? See the problem?

Any given Sunday they say. However, Vegas oddsmakers are usually on the right side of these things. Sportsbooks are not in this game to lose money. Well, according to updated projected win totals, the Chicago Bears schedule just got harder.

The Chicago Bears have a harder schedule than originally predicted

Prior to the end of the preseason, the Chicago Bears had the third-easiest schedule based on projected win totals. Now, they find themselves with the fifth-easiest schedule. The four teams ahead of them in order from easiest to more difficult are the Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Jets.

Having the fifth-easiest schedule is still a positive for the Chicago Bears. In fact, most sportsbooks have the Bears with an over/under of 9.5 games this season. That's an impressive feat, seeing they have a rookie quarterback, even if that rookie quarterback is as good a prospect as Caleb Williams.

According to Warren Sharp, there is no perfect strength of schedule prediction model. However, he believes that using current projected win totals is a better model than relying on models that take prior-year records into consideration. I tend to agree, seeing that there are many factors that could weigh on a team both positively and negatively between the current year and the prior year.

What is good for the Chicago Bears is that the Vikings find themselves in the bottom five (30th), while Green Bay is ranked 27th and the Lions are ranked 18th. This could truly come into play this season and help the Bears go from the worst in the NFC North to first!