4. Over or under 22 TDs and 12 INTs for Justin Fields in 2023
Justin Fields went from seven touchdowns to 17, and from 10 interceptions to 11, so both stats feel like natural progression. What makes these projections interesting is the increase in attempt. On a per-attempt basis, Justin Fields went from a 2.6% touchdown rate to a 5.3% touchdown rate. This year, Mike Clay has him projected for 5%. Fields went from a 3.7% INT rate to 3.5%, and this year Clay has him for 2.5%.
The touchdown rate makes sense. His rate shot up, but he could not keep that sort of projection upward. By throwing more, it just makes sense that a fewer rate of his passes will go for touchdowns. Still, it is easy to say that Fields is a big play hitter, and the Chicago Bears have better weapons. This is where D.J. Moore being so good at the deep ball can keep a high touchdown rate from crashing back down.
On the flip side, that is a nice decline in interceptions. To buy into the interceptions being less than last year with 100 or so more attempts you are not just saying that Fields has better support; you are betting on the idea that he will also get much better. .That could be the case, but we see Fields hitting big plays but also missing here and there.
The best call is to go over touchdowns and say this rate is sustainable. Also, he may decline his INT rate, but a full percentage point may be too much, and he throws a few more picks.