5 over/unders for D'onta Foreman with Chicago Bears in 2023

When the Chicago Bears signed D'onta Foreman, there was an immediate question of how he would be used. The team already has Khalil Herbert, and then they drafted Roschon Johnson. How do these backs fit?

Mike Clay of ESPN Is one of the better analysts regarding fantasy football projections. He did projections for every player on the Chicago Bears, including D'onta Foreman. What does Clay say about the statistical possibilities from Foreman, and do we think he is being fair or foul?

Over/Under 126 carries for 543 yards for D'onta Foreman with Chicago Bears

Off the cuff, this looks low. Foreman had 203 carries last year, but we do not expect him to hit that much. He got launched into more carries because of the Christian McCaffrey trade and was not on pace for that many halfway through the year. Still, even in 2021, he filled in for Derrick Henry and had 133 carries.

He will not be backing up a big name this year but instead competing with Khalil Herbert for carries. Herbert is projected for more carries, which has him leading the split 141 to 126. However, we may see it being closer or leaning toward Foreman. He is the better in-between-the-tackles runner and has just as many runs breakout for big plays. Herbert is good in small doses as a change of pace but cannot grind teams down and will not be that 20-carry guy.

If we are going over on carries, we lean over on yards as well. Foreman averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year and 4.3 for his career. Clay has him down for 4.3 yards per carry this year as well. Assuming Justin Fields remains the quarterback, his mobility makes it much easier to create running lanes for running backs.

This should help Foreman immensely, and he should be able to keep his average or increase it. So, we will go over for both at a better average and on more carries.

Over 126 carries, over 543 yards

Over/Under 11 catches for 80 yards for D'onta Foreman with Chicago Bears

The career high for D'onta Foreman in a season is nine catches for 123 yards. Last year he had the most work of his career and caught five passes for 26 yards. We think this projection from Clay may be optimistic.

The reality is that Foreman is not good in the passing game. He was a negative as a pass blocker last year, and we saw that he has never provided as a pass catcher. It is hard to see that changing next year, even for a slight increase.

First, Justin Fields is not a check-down player. Running backs lose targets around him because he is more prone to scramble and make plays on his own in situations when less mobile quarterbacks would have checked the ball down. So, Foreman will lose those spontaneous targets.

It is also hard to see the Chicago Bears scheming it up for him. That is because they signed Travis Homer and drafted Roschon Johnson. Homer is a passing down back, and Johnson is better both with the ball in his hands as a catcher and pass protector. Those were two of his best traits coming out.

So, with a heavy rotation going on, it will be easy for the Chicago Bears to sub out Foreman on passing downs. This makes it easier to go under his passing stats.

Under 11 catches, under 80 yards

Over/Under 4 total touchdowns for D'onta Foreman with Chicago Bears

We highlighted that we do not see 11 catches, and Foreman has just two receiving touchdowns. The last one came in the 2020 season, so this is not expected in his profile. The question will be can he rush for four or more touchdowns, since betting on a receiving TD is tough.

Foreman had five touchdowns last year, but that was the only year he went over four. He did have three the year prior. So, at 203 carries, he is going over, at 133 he is just under, and we have him going just over 126 carries. He will be right around four, and it is a good projection.

We will lean over. As we noted, the key to the running back by committee approach is that you use specialized players where they are best. So, the Chicago Bears will not use Foreman in the passing game, but he is good near the goal line. There will not be a better goal-line running back on the roster next year, especially early in the season when Roschon Johnson is just coming along. Herbert and Homer should be pulled anytime they get inside the 10-yard line.

Justin Fields may end up being why Foreman does not go over this total. However, for the sake of being optimistic, we will see Foreman getting that fifth touchdown.

Over four touchdowns