5 over/unders for Khalil Herbert with Chicago Bears in 2023

One of the big questions of the Chicago Bears' offseason is what will happen with the running back room. The Bears lost David Montgomery but added D'onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer. The team is expected to see more from Khalil Herbert as well.

Mike Clay does the fantasy football projections at ESPN and has a solid track record with his projections. What does he see from Herbert in 2023, and do we see him meeting or failing to hit those expectations?

Over/Under 141 carries, and 670 yards for Khalil Herbert with Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert went from 103 carries to 129 in his first two years. So, a rise up to 141 would be an expected part of the progression. It also would speak to the fact that Foreman and Johnson will eat into most of the roughly 200 carries that David Montgomery will leave behind. Beyond that, Justin Fields may not rush more.

The question is whether Herbert is good in that role as a part-time, big-play hitter or can handle a bigger workload. Even Mike Clay has him dropping to 4.5 yards per carry. That is excellent, but in 2022, he was at 5.7. Still, that could easily be chalked up in the smaller sample.

As he gets more carries, they would likely be in between the tackles and would naturally go for fewer yards. As the change-of-pace guy he is the perfect dose of explosion, so while he could be in line for more carries, there may be a cap where his specialty is being limited.

With that in mind, we will go slightly over, noting the big gap in missed carries. We could see Herbert closer to 150, so he may only go over by a bit. Still, it is fair to think the yards per carry will drop. Because we think the carries will rise a bit more, we will stay over, but it is easy to think that he could see the drop in his yards per carry that Clay notes.

Over/Under 26 catches for 187 yards for Khalil Herbert with Chicago Bears

This would be one heck of a rise from Khalil Herbert. To put it bluntly, he had 23 catches for 153 yards in his career. So, not only would he more than double his catch total, but he would also go way over the yards per catch total. He would go from 6.6 yards per catch to 7.1.

This is just something we do not see from Khalil Herbert next year. He has never been good in the passing game, and David Montgomery was a better option. Still, we noticed that the Detroit Lions immediately added Jahmyr Gibbs after signing Montgomery because Montgomery is not supposed to be the pass-catching back. It spoke more to how poor Herbert was here.

The Chicago Bears responded by signing Travis Homer and drafting Roschon Johnson. Homer was a passing down back for the Seattle Seahawks and was only on the field for rushing plays, 19% of his career total. Roschon Johnson was praised for being a pass catcher and pass blocker in college.

The duo may not cut into the carries for Herbert, but they will continue to eat away at his receiving total. Herbert will not double his career total, and his receiivng stats will be more in line with his averages the past two years.

Over/Under six total touchdowns for Khalil Herbert with Chicago Bears

This will be another interesting one to watch when you think of Herbert and the course of his career. Right now, he has seven total touchdowns. He has six rushing and just one receiving. Mike Clay has him catching another touchdown this year, but as we noted, we do not project Herbert to do as well in the passing game as Clay does.

We do expect him to get more rushing attempts in total, but the question is, will they just result in more yards, or will they lead to the touchdowns? The Chicago Bears adding D'onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson is not good for his touchdown-scoring potential. Both would be better options once the Chicago Bears get inside the 20.

So, from 20-to-20, we will see more Herbert, but if he wants to score touchdowns, he has to hit the big ones from outside the 20s. That is why we are going to bet against it. We are not totally out on Herbert, as we see more carries and yards, but the receiving and touchdowns may be too high.