4 over/unders for Chase Claypool with Chicago Bears in 2023

What are the expectations after a poor season for Chase Claypool with the Chicago Bears? Mike Clay of ESPN broke down his projections for the entire team, so we will take a look at what is expected from Claypool to see if he should go over or under that projected line.

Over or Under 45 catches on 78 targets for Chase Claypool with Chicago Bears in 2023

This is about the same as what Chase Claypool saw last season. Between Chicago and Pittsburgh, Claypool produced 46 catches on 79 targets. Now, Clay has him down for the same. To be fair, that is an increase from just his time with Chicago.

With the Bears, he averaged two catches per game on four targets. Meanwhile, With the Steelers, he averaged four catches per game on 6.3 targets. Now, Clay has him in between with 5.2 targets and three catches. So, while a similar stat line to last year looks weak, it may actually be fair, especially when you consider the addition of D.J. Moore, the return of Darnell Mooney, and even guys such as Tyler Scott being in the mix now. It is hard to see Claypool getting back to his old ways, and we see Moore being the go-to player in the offense. Claypool will be a sidepiece and will go under this rate.

Under 78 targets, Under 45 catches.

Over or Under 593 yards for Chase Claypool with Chicago Bears in 2023

This rate would be 39.5 yards per game. For his career, he is averaging 47.5 yards per game, but last year the total was just 30 per game. However, when he was with the Steelers last year, it was 38.9 yards, so the thought here is that he could get back to his old ways before the trade.

Claypool would average 13.1 yards per catch and 7.6 per target with these projections, and his career rates are 13.1 and 7.5, so they do make sense. Still, even with Pittsburgh, his yards per target was 6.2, and his total number was 5.7 last year. Meanwhile, he averaged just 9.7 yards per catch.

That is because his depth of target dropped significantly. It was 13.2, then 11.4, before dropping to 9.5 with Pittsburgh last year. The Chicago Bears used him downfield more, but his ADOT was 11.9 with them. Now, the team added D.J. Moore, who is a notable deep threat. It makes you think that Claypool will be back to catching more underneath passes, as well as being the guy who catches the jetsweep action behind the line. This low ADOT will result in fewer yards.

Under 593 yards

Over or Under 4 touchdowns for Chase Claypool with Chicago Bears in 2023

Chase Claypool had nine touchdowns as a rookie and then has three in two seasons since then. Still, if the Chicago Bears can get any value out of him, it has to be schemed up in the red zone. As noted, he can motion and run jet sweeps. At his size, those are lethal in the red zone. His size in general is lethal in the red zone, and the team has to lean on that big body more than D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney when it comes to contested catches.

If the Chicago Bears are smart, they will specialize his skill set and keep him utilized in the red zone. So, we will go over with this projection.

Over four touchdowns.