Predicting Caleb Williams 2024 rookie season stats

There have been many predictions about what the Chicago Bears' first overall selection would do this season. There are way too many different variables, but if we take some offenses that are similar in structure and use quarterbacks with a similar play style, we can come up with an idea of what the average output could be for Caleb Williams (pending health) by just focusing on an average play between those quarterbacks discussed earlier.

First, we have to focus on the scheme. Geno Smith was that man at the helm with Shane Waldron. He tossed the rock 572 times in 2022 and 499 in 2023. Smith missed two games in 2023 and completed almost 70% of his passes in 2022, so the numbers aren't very even. Williams will be a rookie quarterback, but in 17 games, one would think he should have about 525 pass attempts. I hate to do this to everybody, but the 2017 quarterback draft class mostly resembles Caleb Williams. Or should I say he resembles them? At least the first-rounders of that class.

Mitch Trubisky is a mobile guy with a strong arm. Say what you want about him, but he was decent when he was the starter and had talent around him. Let's call that the floor for Williams. Matt Nagy's offense wasn't multiple, but at times, when they were clicking, it was. There is no need to talk more about that situation; Trubisky will be the baseline for Williams's floor.

Deshaun Watson is the out-of-structure creator who can, at any given moment, make a big play using both his legs and his arm. Many seem to have forgotten about him with all of his off-the-field issues and injuries, but the guy can play. When he was a Texan, the offense didn't run through him as the primary playmaker but rather through him as a point guard god.

Lastly, we have Patrick Mahomes. What do I need to tell you about Mahomes that you don't already know? Mahomes is the ceiling of what we could only hope Caleb Williams would become. Williams is his own man, though. We would be talking about 600+ passes a season and being the player that the Chicago Bears win because of. Speaking of passing attempts. Had Trubisky stayed healthy and played in all 16 games all of the years he was a Chicago Bear, he would have touched that 525 mark. That is about what Watson did on average during his three healthy seasons.

The Bears rookie quarterback moderate rookie stat prediction

Yes, there is a big difference between all three of those quarterbacks' rookie seasons. Still, if they were starters on day one and finished healthy, we would be looking at around 525 pass attempts, 63% completion, 3600 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and ten interceptions. That, my Bear friends, is over 16 healthy games. There are now 17 games.

So, if Caleb Williams stays healthy and plays at a medium rate based on the play stay and structure of these three that combine to match his game, he could be looking at 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 3825 passing yards over 17 games. Obviously, I looked at the positive ends of all of the quarterbacks. Only Packer fans would talk about negativity.