5 Over/Unders for Roschon Johnson with Chicago Bears in 2023

What are the Chicago Bears expecting from Roschon Johnson? We wrote about some of the high-end outcomes that could result in a solid career, but what are the realistic outcomes? Or the average outcome? Mike Clay of ESPN does the fantasy football projections. Whatever you think of ESPN or fantasy football, Clay has accurate projections over the years.

So, what does he think about Roschon Johnson in his first season with the Chicago Bears, and will Johnson go over or under these projections?

Over or Under 282 yards on 67 carries for Roschon Johnson with Chicago Bears in 2023

Off the cuff, this feels low. Still, with David Montgomery out, the Chicago Bears are losing about 200 carries. Clay has Foreman around 120, Johnson around 70, and then he gave Khalil Herbert an increase in about 20 carries. When you add it up like that, it does make sense.

You are either betting on the Chicago Bears running it more or one of Foreman or Herbert going well under if Johnson is going to go over.

Still, we see that being a real possibility. First, the team may run more. They led the league in rushing rate last year, but this year they may actually be in the lead in a few more games. That would mean more attempts. Beyond that, Johnson has the age and contract status that may have the team take carries away from Herbert and Foreman to see what they have in Johnson.

We see closer to 100 carries being an average outcome, and thus we see 282 yards being on the low side as well.

Over 67 carries, over 282 yards.

Over or Under four catches for 27 yards for Roschon Johnson with Chicago Bears in 2023

This is very low, especially when you factor in his pass protection. This does not guarantee receptions, but it does mean he will get on the field for passing downs. Both Khalil Herbert and D'onta Foreman struggle in the passing game, and both will get benched when it is time to pass protect. Clay has those to combined for 37 catches on 48 targets. We could take a big portion of those and assume that Johnson will get them because both are so poor in this area, and Johnson is strong.

Over four catches, over 27 yards.

Over or under 2 touchdowns for Roschon Johnson with Chicago Bears in 2023

This all just feels too low. Another area Johnson excelled was punching in touchdowns in the red zone. He had 23 in four seasons and 16 over the last three years despite being a backup throughout that time. It is because he is trusted in that area.

Khalil Herbert is not a power back, and while Foreman is, the mix of the two could lead to more touchdowns. Beyond that, as we noted, if there is a chance for pass protection in the red zone, the Chicago Bears will lean on Johnson over Foreman. This could lead to a quick touchdown or two.

With us assuming more catches, and carries, we definitely see more touchdowns as well.

Over two rushing touchdowns