4. Josh Jacobs has been awful for the Las Vegas Raiders
The situation around Josh Jacobs with the Las Vegas Raiders is getting murky. This is likely his last year with the team, and he missed a lot of the offseason. When you add in that his interior offensive line has not been very good, you have a recipe for disaster. Jacobs is one of the worst running backs in the NFL.
Jacobs is sixth-worst in success rate and second in expected points lost when he touches the football. Every carry he gets is worth -0.22 points. A lot of this is his doing, as he ranks fourth worst in yards created as well.
On the flip side, the Chicago Bears' run defense has slowly gotten better in the past three weeks. They rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush in recent weeks. A lot of this comes down to Andrew Billings having an excellent, but also DeMarcus Walker, TJ Edwards, and Jack Sanborn playing their best football in recent weeks.
The Bears run defense is coming in slightly better than expected, and the Raiders' rushing attack has been poor. At the very least, we could see a game where the Raiders struggle to put the Bears away, and it stays close until late.