When the Chicago Bears opened the season, it looked like Khalil Herbert was going to be the top running back and potentially be the workhorse for the team. He earned almost all of the work in the preseason when Justin Fields was out there, and he even caught a touchdown after pass catching was an issue. However, after a dud in week one, he has become a player who needs to be benched in fantasy football in week two.
Sit Khalil Herbert vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week #2 fantasy matchup
Right now, Herbert is involved in a three-running back committee. Roschon Johnson got the majority of his work in the second half when the game was out of hand, but even in the first half, he was getting almost all of the third down work. The Bears had 12 long down and distance snaps in the week one loss, and Johnson was on the field for eight.
So, even if Herbert showed his pass-catching potential, he would not be on the field when most passes are thrown. With Justin Fields, he is more inclined to run than check it down as well, so Herbert had a lower target per route run rate than Johnson as well.
More than that, in the first half, even D'onta Foreman was getting involved in the offense. He was cutting into the work early. So, Herbert is splitting the early work, or getting about two-thirds of that, and he is not getting the late down work. He is reliant on big plays.
Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, if big plays come, they will be in the passing game. With Vita Vea upfront, the Chicago Bears will have struggles getting a push. Their interior line is the weak spot to begin with.
Then, the Bucs have Devin White and Lavonte David, who can chase Herbert when he kicks runs outside. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing Carlton Davis, and their slot cornerback is a rookie UDFA who did not practice because he was in the concussion protocol all week. This is a secondary worth picking on.
The combination of Herbert not playing enough passing downs, the Bears needing to pass in this game, and the emergence of the other backs being better between the tackles causes the thought that Herbert will not have the biggest game.