Although we are only 12 weeks into the 2025 NFL season, it is never too early to start thinking about the NFC playoff picture.
Thanks to a blistering eight-game stretch that has seen the Chicago Bears go 7-1, thanks to multiple comeback wins, the Bears control their own destiny in the NFC North. While Chicago does not control its own destiny for the top seed in the NFC, the next few games, especially this week's against the Pittsburgh Steelers, will play a significant role in shaping the playoff picture.
Chicago Bears Would Dramatically Improve Playoff Odds With Win
While every single Bears fan would caution against getting too carried away with talk about the playoffs, it's clear that this team is different than those in the past. Where Chicago would wilt in tough games in the past, they are now not only standing tall, but are finding ways to pull out tough games. The same will be needed in Week 12 when the Pittsburgh Steelers come to town.
Although there are still many questions about the upcoming game, mainly regarding Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' injury status, the matchup will still be a great one for any true football fan. Both teams pose a formidable defensive challenge and have playmakers on offense who can break a game open if allowed. If the Bears can limit Pittsburgh and avoid mistakes on offense, they should be able to come away with the victory. If they do, their playoff odds will change dramatically.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Bears are on the inside track to the playoffs this season. At the current moment, they have a 72% chance of making the playoffs. Although interconference games don't mean as much as those within the NFC because there are no tiebreakers at stake, the odds shift dramatically if the Bears win.
Should the Bears defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, their playoff odds are projected to jump from 72 to 79%. While that might not seem like much on the surface, a loss would drop their playoff chances to just 63%. Even without other games and results being factored into account, a 16% swing from one game shows just how important this game is for Chicago.
Playoff Path Only Gets Harder
Unfortunately for the Bears, this week is a must-win game. While a loss still has them as favorites to make the playoffs, they would have no margin for error going into one of the more brutal stretches of the season. After their date with the Steelers, Chicago quickly flies to Philadelphia for a date with the 8-2 Eagles. They have two games against the Green Bay Packers sandwiched around a game against the Cleveland Browns and their always-dangerous defense.
As if that stretch wasn't brutal enough, the Bears will have to travel to San Francisco for a date with the 49ers, who sit at 7-4. In Week 18, the Bears finish off their season with a home date against the formidable Detroit Lions. Even if the Detroit Lions don't have anything to "play for" in that game, Dan Campbell has shown that he and his team have a "no mercy" approach, no matter what.
Read more: Ben Johnson playing it close to the vest with development in booth for Bears game
With none of their games for the rest of the season being "easy wins" or even serving as much more than a toss-up, the Bears could find themselves in danger if they don't take care of business in Week 12. While three wins out of their next seven would likely be enough to get the Bears back to the playoffs, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.