Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs (Part 1)
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6th Tier: Elite PPR plays
If you are playing in a league that doesn’t award any points for receptions (why?) then disregard this section and drop these guy down at least 1 tier.
26.) Reggie Bush, Lions – This is a tough guy to rank. The Lions new OC and the new contract for Joique Bell makes it difficult to project Bush’s usage. When he’s healthy and getting touches Bush is one of the most dangerous running backs in the league, but will he get enough touches to be a quality RB2? Worst case he gets 40% of the touches and is still a solid flex play but I would be nervous spending RB2 money on Bush. If you are a gambler, then Bush is one of the better upside plays out there at his current ADP ($11, 7th round), but keep in mind that it’s definitely risky.
27.) Pierre Thomas, Saints – The hype machine has most of departed RB Darrin Sproles’ targets in the passing game going to rookie Brandin Cooks, but unless Cooks is planning on lining up in the backfield like Sproles did often than Pierre Thomas is going to get a boost in receptions as well. 1st round bust Mark Ingram is still around to take some of the rushing carries as is the intriguing Khyri Robinson, but Thomas will get his usual 10 carries per game and his impressive reception total of 77 last year could improve. Thomas should give Vereen a run for the most receptions from an RB.
28.) Shane Vereen, Pats – He has one of the biggest discrepancies between PPR and non-PPR value, but unlike Woodhead, Vereen does get some carries occasionally. He averaged close to 6 carries per game to go with just under 9 targets in the passing game last season. There is also a chance that Vereen gets some red zone carries if Stevan Ridley can’t hold on to the ball.
7th Tier: Time-Shares with Upside
These players are all part of at least a 2-RB committee but have the talent to either take over the majority of the carries or put up decent fantasy numbers on limited touches. I try to avoid backs in a RBBC situation but that is getting harder to do each season as more teams move in that direction.
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29.) Joique Bell, Lions – Fresh off a 3-yr, $9 M deal Bell could be looking at an increased role. New OC Joe Lombardi is projecting a 50/50 split with Bush but Bell should be getting the goal line carries after going 7-12 on short yardage TD opportunities last season. Goal line duties and half the touches in a prolific offense make Bell draftable but if the injury-prone Bush were to go down, Bell’s value could skyrocket to borderline RB1 territory.
30.) Fred Jackson, Bills – There aren’t may RBs over the age of 30 who are still productive in the NFL, but Jackson seems to be getting better as he ages. Did you know he finished 2013 as the 8th ranked fantasy RB? He is going to split carries with Spiller again so don’t expect any 20 carry games, but F-Jax should get the Bills goal line carries and as a team the Bills led the league is rush attempts per game with 34. He’s not an exciting pick but he’s a pretty reliable bet for at least 10 fantasy points a week.
31.) Chris Johnson, Jets – He’s no longer the dangerous RB he was early in his career, but Johnson had a solid season last year (1,422 yards, 10 TDs). Unfortunately he’s in a worse situation in New York on a team with absolutely no passing game, a RBBC committee that HC Rex Ryan has already confirmed and 8 man fronts on most downs. Johnson should be the primary ball carrier between the 20s, but both Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell will get an occasional series and one of them will most likely be the goal line back. Johnson should approach 1,000 total yards but his TD number will take a big hit as will his overall fantasy value.
32.) Stevan Ridley, Pats – Can he hold on to the ball? Can he hold off rookie James White? Can he stay out of Belichick’s dog house all season? That’s a few too many ifs for me and I am staying away from Ridley unless the cost is negligible after getting burned in multiple leagues last season. If Ridley defies the odds and manages to keep the Pats starting RB job all year then he will be a steal at his current price ($3, 11th round), but I just don’t see it happening.
¹ All advanced statistics are from either Pro Football Focus or Football Outsiders