Chicago Bears Make Bad Trade for Mitch Trubisky

The Chicago Bears trade to move up and acquire Mitch Trubisky was bad for the organization and made Ryan Pace look like a novice GM.

Fans of the Chicago Bears were stunned when the team moved up from #3 in the 2017 NFL Draft to #2 in order to pick up Trubisky and rightfully so.  Trubisky may end up being a stellar QB, but that doesn’t mean the trade was good.  Nobody saw it coming, and it was a bad move for a variety of reasons.

Trade Leverage

Everyone knew the 49ers were interested in Solomon Thomas.  It was almost a foregone conclusion.

Everyone had the 49ers taking Solomon Thomas. 

Average fans and avid fans both linked Solomon to San Francisco.  What about the mock draft experts?  Both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay had the same thing.

If this was such general knowledge, then the Bears held an advantage over all other trade partners.  They knew, or should have known, the 49ers love for Thomas.

Then of course there is this:

Trade Value

Regardless of the other teams hoping to move up to #2 to get Trubisky, none could offer the guarantee that Solomon Thomas would still be there.  The Bears had just as much leverage as the Niners did, but simply failed to exploit the situation.

Based on the trade value chart, the Bears lost the deal.  The #2 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft is worth 2600 points.  The picks the Bears gave up were equal to over 2700.

• Round 1, Pick 3 = 2200
• Round 3, Pick 67 = 255
• Round 4, Pick 111 = 72
• 2018 Round 3 Pick = ~200

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Regardless of what happens in 2017, the Bears will likely have a third round pick next year worth somewhere around 200 points.  Add that to the rest of the picks, and it’s obvious who won the quantitative battle between Pace and rookie GM John Lynch.

What’s important, however, is that Pace obviously didn’t consider what others had to propose in order to move up.  The top four picks in the NFL draft hold significantly more value than other picks do.  There is a 400 point difference between the picks, and after that, the differences drop off to 100.  That means trading into the top four is very costly.  Remember how much the Rams gave up last year to move into the #1 spot?

Other Trade Partners

The rest of Cleveland’s picks, including the #12 pick, were worth just over 2600 points.  So the Browns would have had to give up every pick they had in the 2017 draft to move into the #2 spot.  Not a likely move for a franchise widely thought of as the worst in the NFL.

Either Houston’s or Kansas City’s picks were minimal enough that they each would have had to offer the remainder of their 2017 draft, a 2018 first rounder, and likely a 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2018.

Ryan Pace risked his job on the Mitch Trubisky trade.  Give him credit for having the guts to do so.  Many say drafting a franchise QB is worth whatever it takes to get him.  Hopefully, Bears’ fans will look back in a few years and high-five about the day the Bears picked the multiple time Pro Bowl, record-setting QB.  But that won’t make the trade any better of a deal.

Keep one thing in mind, however, Pace is the guy who essentially bid against himself in the auction for Mike Glennon, who, in case you forgot, is also a QB.