Fair or Foul: Mitchell Trubisky 2018 Completion Percentage
Is a two-percent increase in completion percentage a justifiable goal for Mitchell Trubisky?
It seems obvious on all accounts that Mitchell Trubisky is going to improve statistically in his second season. After what would be looked at as a poor rookie year, it will not take much for him to have a better stat line.
Mike Clay, who does the projections for fantasy football at ESPN projected the season line for Trubisky. Clay has him throwing for nearly 4,000 yards, to go with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Clay also had Trubisky completing 61% of his passes.
After completing 59% of his passes last season, it brought the question, is a 2-percent increase strong from rookie year to sophomore?
Of course, outside variables such as wide receivers, offensive coordinator and depth of pass have major impacts on how efficient a passer can be. Still, since the new CBA, which made life easier for rookie quarterbacks to succeed, here is the difference in completion percentage from year one to two.
It is descending from the biggest drop off in completion percentage to the greatest increase. Remember, the jump for Trubisky would be 1.6.
| Robert Griffin | -5.5 |
| Dak Prescott | -4.9 |
| Cam Newton | -2.3 |
| Carson Wentz | -2.2 |
| Russell Wilson | -1 |
| Marcus Mariota | -1 |
| Blake Bortles | -0.3 |
| Teddy Bridewater | 0.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2.5 |
| Derek Carr | 3 |
| Andy Dalton | 4.2 |
| Andrew Luck | 6.1 |
| Jared Goff | 7.5 |
| Christian Ponder | 7.8 |
Robert Griffin is a huge outlier after his devastating injury, but Ponder is a major outlier due to his woeful rookie year. The average result in this time period is an increase of 1.3-percent. The median is 0.9 and the mode is -1.
So while there are outliers, the average outcome would be in the range from a decrease of just 1-percent or an increase of 1-percent. With Trubisky increase just over 1-percent, this seems like a safe, fair, projection given the history of the position.
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However, in the particular case of Trubisky, this may be a bit too safe. One thing we have noted with Trubisky is how safe he can be as a passer. He does not force throws into traffic, and by instinct can check down into a more efficient pass statistically.
The Kansas City Chiefs offense last season used a lot of pre-snap motion and confusion to make decisions easier for the quarterback, therefore making the quarterback’s completion rate higher.
This should be applied to Trubisky as well, considering the way in which Nagy is assembling the roster. He is adding skilled pass catchers who were not on the team, and add plays to the playbook that the former staff would have never thought of.
So, while it is a fair projection to give Trubisky a modest increase in completion percentage, he seems to be in a situation to sit closer to the Andy Dalton, Derek Carr second-year jump.
Jared Goff was a 54% passer as a rookie, so it is a bit tough to expect that big of a leap for Trubisky. However, if Trubisky can get his completion percentage to about 62 or 63 percent, it should be looked at as a very successful season and a big jump forward.