The Chicago Bears (9-3) enter Week 14 leading the NFC North, but an impending showdown with the Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) could change everything quickly.
The winner of the game will take control of a division that currently boasts three teams with eight or more wins, but if the Bears are the victors, they can potentially strengthen their hold as the conference's overall one seed. Nonetheless, the game is the latest test for a Bears team trying to prove itself a real contender.
If they want to pull off the road upset divisional win, they will have to accomplish the following three keys to success:
Let the rookie pass catchers go to work
With Rome Odunze ruled out for Sunday due to a foot injury, the Bears are set to go into Lambeau without the team's leader in receptions (44), receiving yards (661), and receiving touchdowns (six). To pick up the slack in the passing game, the Bears will have to look for two rookies --- Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III --- to perform in larger roles.
Ever since scoring the team's game-winning touchdown versus the Cincinnati Bengals, Loveland has emerged as a top target for quarterback Caleb Williams. Over the last five games, the rookie has accounted for 21% of the team's total receptions (20), 26% of their receiving yards (290), and 33% of their receiving touchdowns (three). In the year, Loveland ranks within the top three of rookie tight ends in yards and touchdowns despite being ranked seventh among such players in receptions.
Burden's production has not been as steady as Loveland's, but the second-round pick has come on late as a starter and surely will be a part of Ben Johnson's game plan to mitigate the loss of Odunze. Over the Bears' first seven games, Burden failed to play over 29% of the offensive snaps in any outing. It's been a much different story as of late, where the rookie has logged at least 44% of the snaps in each of the last four games. Over that span, he has accumulated 13 receptions and 157 yards.
Veteran receiver D.J. Moore may slot into the Bears' number one option in Odunze's absence. Tight end Cole Kmet remains a reliable target --- both over the middle and downfield --- but without the top contributor in their passing attack, Chicago's offense will have to see both Loveland and Burden take another step forward as they have already throughout their respective rookie seasons.
Continue to dominate on the ground
Averaging nearly 154 yards on the ground per game, the second-best mark in the league, the Bears offense has become one of the league's most prolific rushing attacks, thanks in large part to the emergence of a lethal one-two punch in D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.
Swift leads the way with 774 yards, placing him just outside the league's top 10 rushers in yards per game. Monangai, who has 591 yards on the year, completes a Bears duo that is one of just two groups across the league that possesses two 500+ yard rushers through 13 weeks, joining Ben Johnson's former duo in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery for the Detroit Lions.
Swift and Monangai both went for over 125 yards a week ago against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they may face more adversity this week against a Packers defense that is one of eight units to allow less than 100 rushing yards per game. Still, the Bears have been held to less than 100 rushing yards as a team just twice since their bye week while accumulating as many games with over 280 such yards during that same span.
If the Bears can continue to dominate up front with their reworked offensive line, not only will they continue to move the ball efficiently, but they will prove to be one of the harder teams to beat in the NFL. The offensive identity of pounding the rock appears to align well with a defense that has a proclivity in forcing turnovers, and the Bears will need to follow that downhill, tough-nosed mindset if they are going to win their second road divisional game of the season.
Generate pressure at the line of scrimmage
The aforementioned opportunistic defense has made up for a lot of their flaws by turning the ball over at a league-high rate, but if the Bears want to beat the Packers, they will have to get more production out of their front in the form of consistent pass rush.
Montez Sweat, who has recorded at least one sack in five of the Bears' last seven games, has been the primary disruptor across a defensive line that accounts for 9.5 sacks otherwise. Granted, the Bears have faced several injuries up front, but as the season wanes on, they have to find a way to generate pressure without needing to send extra bodies from the secondary.
Unfortunately for the defense, this week's game will prove problematic in that regard, as the Packers are one of four offenses that allow fewer than 1.5 sacks per game. In fact, quarterback Jordan Love has avoided being sacked more than twice in 10 of the Packers' 12 games, including in each of their past two outings.
Still, the Packers are 0-2 in games in which the opposing defense generates more than two sacks. That is not to say that getting to Love multiple times will ensure victory for the Bears, but it's a trend that the road team should look to continue.
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The Bears themselves are 4-1 in games in which they record three or more sacks as a team, with the lone such loss coming in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings.