Progress isn't linear in the NFL. The 2025 Chicago Bears rode an electric wave of momentum to the franchise's first playoff win in 15 years, but instead of building on that success, they're seen as one of the top regression candidates in 2026.
Head coach Ben Johnson knows it. While he expects his team to compete for a championship, he recognized the risk of a setback this offseason, saying, "We're the No. 1 regression candidate."
Nobody wants to take a detour on the road to a Super Bowl. But if the Bears falter in their second year under Johnson, it shouldn't be seen as a disaster.
Bears are the NFL's top regression candidate for a reason
ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell recognizes Chicago's chances of regression. He listed the Bears first in an article naming the teams most likely to decline this season.
After citing the Bears' historic success in close games, Barnwell said, "With real concerns about the defense and a guarantee that the Bears won't be quite as lucky with turnovers and special teams work late in games, though, I'm not sure even an improved offense can get Chicago to 11 wins this season."
After one season at the helm, Johnson has done enough to warrant trust in his ability to produce a top-ten offense. It's reasonable to assume some progress from Caleb Williams in his second season in this system, and Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are strong breakout candidates.
If the new faces on the offensive line can hold their own, the offense will be set up for another elite season.
The defense, on the other hand, could be a disaster. The unit relied heavily on generating turnovers last season, producing the most takeaways in the NFL. Even if the defense exceeds expectations in 2026, some of that turnover luck is bound to change.
The Bears hardly added any talent on defense this offseason. Coby Bryant was expected to be the most impactful newcomer, and he's set to miss most of the season with a knee injury. This defense truly has the potential to be one of the league's worst.
Even with a top-ten offense, Chicago's defense could be enough to end fans' playoff hopes early. But that isn't the disaster it may sound like. With multiple key contributors still on rookie deals, Chicago will have the financial flexibility moving forward to continue building a more well-rounded contender.
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If the Bears drop below ten wins this season, it will undoubtedly be disappointing. But it won't mean that the franchise's rise under Johnson is over. A minor setback might be necessary on the road to a championship.
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