In one of the more shocking events of the 2025 season, the Chicago Bears burst onto the scene and won 11 games, capturing the NFC North in Ben Johnson's first year at the helm. It was quite a productive season, and typically, head coaches prove themselves one way or another almost immediately.
Johnson helping this franchise do a total 180 does bode well for his long-term chances at success in Chicago. The improvement on offense was downright jaw-dropping, and while the defense did struggle, the unit forced a ton of turnovers and kept Chicago competitive.
The Bears also had some late-game heroics up their sleeve nearly every week - Chicago won seven one-score games in 2025 and just continually brought things down to the wire. While it was nice to see the team winning so much and getting into the playoffs in the process, the team's chances at repeating in 2026 might not be quite as high as you think.
Chicago Bears' chances at winning the NFC North again might be lower than you think
NFL.com Senior News Writer Kevin Patra ranked the Bears as the third-most vulnerable division winner heading into the 2026 season:
"Chicago used a host of comeback victories to flip from worst to first in the NFC North last season. Staying on top will prove a tougher challenge in a tightly packed division. Caleb Williams continues to ascend, and Ben Johnson’s offense figures to take another step forward with the development of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. There is a question at left tackle, and Chicago has yet to fill the holes on the defensive line. The Bears toed the line last year, winning seven one-score games. With a more difficult route, a regression to the mean in those close tilts could cost them a chance to repeat. The Lions are improved on paper from a year ago after filling the holes on the offensive line, but they still have questions on defense. When Micah Parsons returns from injury, the Packers will be a force to be reckoned with. And if the Vikings can figure out their QB room -- possibly getting a Sam Darnold-like boost from Kyler Murray -- they can’t be counted out. You could legitimately make an argument that any of the four teams can win the division without sounding completely nutty."
All of Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit won nine games, so this wasn't some sort of runaway title for the Bears. The Lions were 7-4 through 11 games before a defensive collapse, and the Packers were even 9-3-1 at one point before losing four straight to end the season.
On paper, while the Bears do have a good roster, the Lions are stronger, especially on offense. Defensively, the Lions have had some troubles, but with a top-flight pass-rusher like Aidan Hutchinson, the unit does have the chance to bounce back.
Green Bay is one of the more stable franchises in the league, and there's really no indication that this team isn't going to win some games again. And, as Patra notes, the Minnesota Vikings' figuring out the quarterback room could give the NFC North a fourth viable team.
Where Chicago does have an advantage is having just won the division and a quarterback in Caleb Williams who may have the highest ceiling of any player in the division. Williams did take a leap forward in year two, and the one (maybe only) thing standing in the way of a potential MVP season is simply getting that completion percentage up above 60 percent.
Sure, there is always a chance the Bears take a huge step in the right direction in year two under Johnson, but it's only fair to take note of the three other viable teams in the division. In 2024, for example, the Lions won 15 games and the NFC North, one year after winning 12 games and the division.
Green Bay has just one losing season over the past seven years, and even Minnesota has won 13 and 14 games in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Chicago will have to be at their best to repeat as NFC North champions in 2026.
Read more: Bears' Caleb Williams given stellar standing in a unique ranking for 2026
The late-game heroics were great, but it's going to take more complete performances to win this loaded division again.
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